Solar power saved EU gas imports worth €20 billion & could cut demand by a quarter by 2030

The EU has already reduced its natural gas demand by 20 % between 2021 and 2024—primarily through the expansion of solar power, wind energy, and heat pumps. The energy generated within the EU alone Solar power saved EU gas imports during the Iran conflict between March 1 and July 15, 2026, worth 20 billion euros. If the EU achieves its expansion targets by 2030, the Gas demand up by another quarter compared to today. At the same time, the current Iran conflict shows how immediately this effect unfolds:

The most important thing in brief

• Structural: Following the ban on Russian natural gas imports, the EU reduced its gas demand by 20 % (–78.5 billion m³) between 2021 and 2024. This was made possible by 146 GW of newly installed solar power, 43 GW of wind power, and 7.6 million new heat pumps.
• Target path until 2030: If the EU achieves its expansion targets (75 GW of solar PV, 22 GW of wind power, and 4 million heat pumps—each per year), gas demand will decrease by an additional 25 % by the end of 2030. This is equivalent to twice the maximum volume of LNG that the EU could import from Qatar by 2030.
• Acute stress test: Since the escalation of the Iran conflict in early March 2026, European photovoltaics has mathematically avoided 20 billion euros in gas imports by mid-July. This corresponds to a recent daily average of 146 million euros.
• Risk background: However, due to the Russian natural gas embargo, the EU’s LNG imports rose by 84 % between 2021 and 2025. Damage to export facilities in Qatar, one of Europe’s most important suppliers, further exacerbates the supply risk.

Structural gas displacement: What the expansion of renewable energy has already achieved

According to calculations by the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), the EU reduced its natural gas demand by 20 % between 2021 and 2024. IEEFA analyst Ana Maria Jaller-Makarewicz attributes this primarily to the combined effect of the expansion of solar and wind energy, heat pump installations, and targeted gas-saving measures. During this period, EU member states installed:

• 146 GW photovoltaic capacity
• 43 GW of wind energy capacity
• 7.6 million heat pumps

Already in 2024, heat pumps and additional solar and wind power generation displaced an amount of gas, according to IEEFA estimates, that corresponded to about two-thirds of the EU's imports of Qatari LNG in that year.

EU additions: Actual pace (2021–2024) vs. target path from 2025

The comparison shows that the current rate of expansion for all three technologies is still noticeably below what the EU targets require starting in 2025. For photovoltaics, the pace would need to increase by a good 50 %; for wind power, by around 54 %; and for heat pumps, by about 60 %.

Why solar power must also strategically reduce EU gas imports

While the expansion of renewable energy is structurally reducing gas demand, the EU wants to import more gas. LNG imports rose by 84 % from 2021 to 2025—as a result of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. According to the IEEFA, the escalation of the Iran conflict is creating an additional, significant supply risk, which is reflected, among other things, in damage to export facilities in Qatar – one of Europe's most important LNG suppliers.

If the EU meets its expansion targets of 75 GW of photovoltaic, 22 GW of wind, and 4 million heat pumps annually, gas demand will drop by a quarter compared to today by the end of 2030, according to IEEFA. This does not yet take into account further savings measures. This saving corresponds to twice the maximum amount of LNG that the EU could import from Qatar by 2030.

The Crisis Stress Test: Iran Conflict Since March 2026

While the IEEFA analysis shows the structural, long-term impact of renewable energy expansion, a calculation by Solarpower Europe provides evidence of the short-term, acute impact. Since the escalation of the Middle East conflict in early March 2026, European solar systems have supplied so much electricity that it theoretically avoided EU gas imports in the double-digit billions.

Solar power saved EU gas imports

SolarPower Europe has quantified the period since the escalation of the conflict in two stages: By May 20, 2026, the cumulative savings amounted to 10 billion euros, driven by a particularly high Daily average of 110 million euros alone in the peak month of March. By July 15, 2026 – meaning over the entire 137-day period since March 1 – the value doubled to 20 billion euros, with a Daily average of 146 million euros. The association has not published an official breakdown by individual calendar months.

The fact that the second half of the period—from late May to mid-July—likely contributed disproportionately to the total savings can be substantiated using independent data from the think tank Ember. According to this data, solar power’s share of EU electricity generation reached a new record of 47 TWh (23 %), a new record that was surpassed once again in June 2026 with 52 TWh (25 %). Thus, Solar for the first time for a whole month strongest power source in the EU, before nuclear power, gas, wind, and coal.

To put this into perspective: According to Solarpower Europe, 10 billion euros would be enough to install approximately 8 GW of additional photovoltaic capacity —about 12 % of the total new PV capacity installed in the EU in 2025—or, alternatively, about 44 GWh of utility-scale battery storage capacity, more than three times what Europe will have newly installed in this segment by 2025.

Natural gas price trends as a trigger

The underlying price dynamics make it clear how directly geopolitical risks applied to European energy costs:

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and damage to fossil fuel infrastructure drove European gas futures to a peak of over €60/MWh in March 2026—twice the average of the preceding months. SolarPower Europe CEO Walburga Hemetsberger places this in a broader context: the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine has already cost the EU a total of 1.7 trillion euros.

Solar power in the European electricity mix 2025

The annual report of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (ESOTC 2025) provides the structural context for this crisis buffer effect. In 2025, photovoltaics covered a total of 12.5 % of Europe’s electricity demand, up from 10.3 % the previous year. This increase was driven by 65 GW of new PV capacity and above-average solar radiation in Northwestern, Central, and Eastern Europe. Renewables as a whole covered 46.4 % of Europe’s electricity demand; in 2025, photovoltaics and wind energy together supplied more electricity than coal- and gas-fired power plants for the first time.

Classification: What this means for grid flexibility & storage

Both studies point—albeit marginally—to an aspect that will become crucial for the future expansion path: the larger the share of weather-dependent generation, the more important the system's ability to shift generation peaks in time becomes. SolarPower Europe addresses this directly by alternatively converting the avoided gas import costs into battery storage capacity—amounting to a multiple of the current annual storage deployment. IEEFA also points to necessary grid investments as a prerequisite for the expansion targets to actually translate into displacing gas.

For operators and investors in utility-scale battery energy storage systems (BESS), this means: the expansion of solar and wind power is not only creating additional generation peaks, but also a growing need for flexibility in order to shift these peaks in a grid-friendly manner and truly maximize their contribution to security of supply. Read more in our expert articles Flexibility marketing and Revenue Stacking & Virtual Cycling.

Frequently asked questions about how solar power saves EU gas imports

Sources

• IEEFA: New solar, wind and heat pumps could save twice the gas the EU imports from Qatar by 2030 (ieefa.org)
• Solarpower Europe: Europe’s energy crisis solar savings pass €10 billion (solarpowereurope.org, 20.05.2026)
• Copernicus Climate Change Service: European State of the Climate 2025 (ESOTC 2025)
• pv magazine Deutschland: “New photovoltaic systems, wind turbines and heat pumps could reduce EU natural gas demand by a quarter by 2030” (07/28/2026)
• pv magazine Germany: “European photovoltaic systems have avoided ten billion euros worth of gas imports since the escalation of the Iran conflict” (May 20, 2026)
• Euronews: Update on the €20 billion savings (07/16/2026)