The Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) has released its report on “Security of supply electricity”released. On 79 pages, it describes the „Status and Development of Security of Supply in the Area of Electricity Supply.“ The publication date in early September 2025 coincides with the two studies by Enervis Energy Advisors and Agora Energiewende and also serves as a precursor to the upcoming Energy Transition Monitoring Report from the BMWK. The political attention is therefore considerable. While proponents see the report as confirmation for the accelerated expansion of renewable energies, critics fear it will be a political template for the construction of additional gas power plants.
The study also examines the development of the German electricity system up to 2035. It aims to identify risks and areas of action for a stable power supply at an early stage. The basis is a model-based scenario analysis that considers the expansion of renewable energies, the electrification of energy consumption, the development of flexibility potentials, and grid expansion. The central indicators for security of supply are the expected number of hours with power shortages per year (LOLE - Loss of Load Expectation) and the unmet energy quantity (EENS).
Overview of Electricity Supply Security Scenarios in the Report
The Federal Network Agency (BNetzA) analyzed two core scenarios in its report on electricity security of supply:
- Soul Scenario: Expansion of renewable energies, grids, and flexibility is proceeding according to schedule, in line with the expansion targets defined in the Renewable Energy Sources Act 2023.
- Delay Scenario: Expansion goals will be achieved later, flexibility and grid infrastructure are developing more slowly.
In addition, sensitivity analyses were conducted, for example, to account for reduced demand elasticity or bottlenecks in grid expansion.
Key findings of the target scenario
In its target scenario, the BNetzA reaches the key conclusion that security of supply in Germany will remain assured even with an ambitious expansion of renewable energy—provided that
- the expansion of wind and solar power plants and the power grids proceeds as planned,
- the flexibility potential of new consumers such as heat pumps, electric cars, and electrolyzers is exploited,
- and there is a substantial increase in controllable power plant capacity, particularly gas-fired power plants that are hydrogen-compatible (“H2-ready”).
By 2035, a gross increase in controllable capacity of 22.4 GW—that is, without accounting for decommissioning—will be required. Depending on the scenario, the net figure ranges from 12.5 to 25.6 GW. At the same time, electricity consumption will rise due to electrification to 725 TWh in 2030 and to 941 TWh in 2035. The installed capacity of renewable energies, primarily wind and solar PV, continues to grow strongly. This leads to increasingly volatile electricity generation, making flexibility in electricity consumption across the entire system a key factor.
In this scenario, indirectly controllable, price-sensitive consumers—including industrial processes, electric vehicles, and heat pumps—will generate 79 GW of demand flexibility by 2035. Of this potential, approximately 30 GW will actually be used to reduce load during peak periods, which significantly reduces the need for backup capacity. The indicators are also on target. For 2035, the LOLE is 0.28 h/a and the EENS is at a very low level.
Key results of the delay scenario
In the delay scenario, supply security deteriorates significantly if expansion targets for renewable energy, grids, and flexibility measures are not met on time. In this case, the demand for controllable power plant capacity increases substantially. In its report on supply security, the BNetzA estimates that electricity generation will require a gross expansion of up to 35.5 gigawatts by 2035, which is significantly more than in the target scenario. The reason for this is that a lower share of renewable energy and less developed demand response leave larger gaps in the power system. These gaps must be covered by conventional generation.
The trend in flexibility is particularly concerning. Instead of the potential 79 gigawatts, only about 20 percent of that capacity is being utilized. As a result, peak loads cannot be managed as effectively, and the balance between generation and consumption is more frequently disrupted. Consequently, supply security indicators are also deteriorating. In the Year 2030 exceeds the LOLE with 4.6 hours per year significantly exceed the applicable reliability standard of 2.77 hours. First 2035 approaches the value with 1.77 hours back to an acceptable level.
The reduced flexibility also has a negative impact on grid stability. At times, reliance on imports increases noticeably, while the domestic grid does not provide sufficient capacity to offset shortages. The risk of electricity price spikes also rises significantly, as more expensive reserve power plants would have to be deployed during periods of scarcity. Overall, the delay scenario shows that a hesitant expansion of renewable energy, grids, and flexibility not only leads to higher costs but also weakens supply security for years to come.
Criticism of the handling of storage in the report on electricity supply security
A central criticism of the BNetzA's report on electricity supply security is its handling of electricity storage. Although Large-scale battery storage mentioned in the summary, but they were not included in the model calculations. Instead of taking into account the expansion that has already been promised and planned on a large scale, the analysis even assumes declining capacities, criticizes the German Solar Association (BSW-Solar).
Other industry representatives also see this as posing a risk of skewed results and warn that the importance of storage for energy security is being massively underestimated. Storage technologies could partially replace conventional power plants and should be systematically factored into future scenarios to enable sound policy decisions.
Recommendations for Action from the Federal Network Agency
Based on the scenario analyses, the Federal Network Agency recommends several measures to ensure long-term security of supply. The top priority is swift implementation of the in the EEG and in the grid expansion plan defined expansion paths for renewable energy and grids. At the same time, the full potential for flexibility new consumer groups – from electromobility to heat pumps to industrial loads – are to be leveraged to stabilize the system in times of high volatility.
In addition, the authority sees a significant need for additional controllable power generation capacity, preferably in the form of hydrogen-compatible gas-fired power plants. However, it does not take into account the overall economic costs resulting from the increased CO₂ emissions emerge. To ensure market uptake, she advocates for the introduction of a Capacity mechanism which financially rewards the provision of this service. In addition, the BNetzA calls for better coordination between the electricity and gas infrastructure and the strengthening of European grid solutions in order to be able to cushion supply gaps in the national system through imports.