In the coming days, the Energy Transition Monitoring Report is expected, which was prepared by the Institute for Energy Economics (EWI) on behalf of the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK). The report is already being intensively discussed in advance. Critics fear that the analysis could primarily serve to slow down the expansion of renewable energies and the apparently already planned Construction of gas power plants to justify. Parallel to the ongoing process, several studies have now been published examining the possible consequences of slowing down the expansion of photovoltaics and wind power. The results make it clear that a slowdown would entail significant risks for climate protection, energy costs, and security of supply.
Consequences of a slowed-down expansion
A short study commissioned by Greenpeace and Green Planet Energy from the consulting firm Enervis Energy Advisors analyzes different development paths for the period up to 2035. The starting point is the reference scenario, which is based on the targets set so far. According to the EEG 2023, these are: 215 gigawatts of photovoltaic capacity and 145 gigawatts of wind energy by 2030, as well as a strong ramp-up in electric vehicles and heat pumps. To achieve this, a annual increase of 22 gigawatts of solar power planned. This scenario compares Enervis with variants that assume a significantly slower expansion of both renewable energies and electrification.
The results show: While the differences in the electricity sector remain limited at first, CO₂ emissions in transport and heating increase significantly if fossil fuels are relied upon for longer. By 2035, the additional Emissions on up to 381 million tons. Additionally, there would be another 62 million tons if electricity consumption increases and the expansion of renewable energies falters. Experts calculate this value with an additional electricity production of 10 TWh from gas power plants. Conversely, and without additional gas and coal power generation could even be rounded Avoid 76 million tons of CO₂.
In addition to the climate impacts, the study also highlights the economic risks of a slowed expansion. Through the European emissions trading system alone, additional costs of up to 8.4 billion euros per year could arise as early as 2030. The societal climate costs, calculated on the basis of data from the Federal Environment Agency, add up up to 128 billion euros by 2035.
Cost-effectiveness as a political benchmark in the Energy Transition Monitoring Report
The BMWK commissioned the monitoring report on the energy transition with a strong focus on cost efficiency. Environmental organizations like Germanwatch criticize that this perspective inadequately reflects the long-term climate consequences and overall economic costs. While investments could be reduced in the short term by slowing down, in return Penalties To the EU, rising prices for CO₂ certificates and higher dependencies on fossil fuel imports arise.
The Enervis study highlights this conflict of objectives: scenarios with a slowed expansion not only lead to higher emissions but also to additional costs for the state, companies, and consumers. In contrast, an ambitious expansion of renewable energies reduces import dependency in the long term and creates room for falling electricity prices.
Analysis of Agora Energiewende
The think tank Agora Energiewende presents a similar finding in its own study. It compares two scenarios for development up to 2030 and highlights four key levers: accelerated electrification, targeted expansion of flexibilities, efficient grid planning, and ambitious expansion of renewable energies.
According to Agora's calculations, in an ambitious scenario, up to an additional 36 million tons of CO₂ saved – compared to a development path with throttled expansion. At the same time, fossil fuel imports worth up to seven billion euros annually could be avoided. Furthermore, the analysis expects the expansion of wind and solar energy to reduce electricity prices by 2030 reduce by up to 23 percent could.
This carries the message that lower electricity demand should not be used as an excuse for a slower expansion of renewable energies. Instead, it is necessary to advance electrification in the transport, building, and industrial sectors and to prepare the grids for the increasing electricity demand in a timely manner.
Outlook on the Energiewende Monitoring Report
The upcoming energy policy decisions will largely determine whether Germany achieves its climate goals while simultaneously strengthening its competitiveness. It remains to be seen what conclusions the Federal Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action (BMWK) will draw from the monitoring report on the energy transition by the Institute for Energy Economics (EWI). In any case, the studies already available show that a slower expansion of renewable energies would have significant disadvantages for climate policy and the economy. An ambitious course for wind and solar energy, on the other hand, offers the opportunity to reduce emissions, avoid costs in emissions trading, and decrease dependence on fossil fuel imports.
Against this backdrop, it appears crucial to interpret the energy transition monitoring report not solely from a cost perspective, but also to consider the long-term risks and opportunities.