The continuous downward trend of the PV module prices seems to have stopped. The historically low prices for solar moduleswhich are characterized by Overproduction and Full bearings of Chinese manufacturers in the fall of 2023 will soon be over. All experts agree on this. The predicted price rises are expected to be driven by both global as well as from regional factors influenced. Factors include political uncertainties, supply strategies from China and rising spring demand in Europe, particularly in Germany. While the low prices were initially due to manufacturers' efforts to adapt to the market, they are now showing signs of stabilizing, which will halt the recent slower downward trend.
PV module prices still stable & still low
The rapid decline in PV module prices, which began after the first energy price shock in mid/late 2022 and continued until fall/winter 2023, has slowed noticeably in recent months. However, a look at the development of PV module prices over the course of a year from February 2023 to February 2024 shows that, depending on the module class Price reductions between 45 - 53 %. Solar module prices in Europe and Asia have been hit harder than elsewhere. In the USA, they are particularly high due to import restrictions. Some non-Chinese manufacturers are therefore increasingly focusing on the US market. In Europe, solar module prices have been stable since February 2023 at High-efficiency modules to 45 % to now around 22 cents/Wp, with Mainstream modules to 53 % to now 14 cents/Wp and at Low-cost modules to 52 % fell to 9 cents/Wp.
Reasons for the expected increase in 2024
There are various reasons for the expected rise in PV module prices. Firstly, demand will increase, particularly in Europe, as spring approaches. At the same time puts the brakes on China continues to reduce its overproduction and empty its stocks. As a result, the fall in prices that was observed in 2023 has come to a halt. However, the stocks that were still full to bursting in fall 2023 are coming to an end. As a result, experts are advising customers to stock up on modules and inverters now.
Furthermore, the continuing Conflicts in the Horn of Africa and the general extension of container delivery times from 6 to 8 weeks are contributing to delays in deliveries. This leads to additional costs and makes planning more difficult for companies in the PV industry. Higher transportation and fuel costs are also a factor contributing to rising prices.
Another important point is that in Europe there is a lack of a strong domestic solar industry. This increases dependence on imports and influences prices. The Increasing demand through the Spring business and the depletion of Chinese stocks as a result of the reduction in Chinese production are further factors. Overall, these various factors indicate that prices for PV modules will tend to rise in the near future. As a result, companies and consumers will have to rethink their procurement strategies in order to cope with rising costs. The effects are already being felt. Some inverter models are currently barely available and will not be supplied again until May 2024. Large modules for open spaces will probably not be available again until June.