In its latest study, the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) analyzed the Production costs of various power generation technologies. The focus of the analysis was on renewable energies such as photovoltaics, wind energy and bioenergy plants. For the first time PV battery systems and compared the production costs with various renewable energy technologies and conventional power plants.
Calculation of prime costs
For the study, the researchers used the LCOE (Levelized Cost of Electricity) of the various energy source technologies, taking into account different development and price paths. Specific cost parameters in the European economic context and the energy policy planning of the German energy system were also taken into account.
When calculating the prime costs for PV battery systems, the researchers based the costs for the storage systems on the usable capacity including installation costs. The technical and financial service life for PV systems was set at 30 years and that of the battery storage systems at 15 years. The analysis examined two typical ratios for large-scale storage systems in conjunction with commercial PV systems, namely a ratio of 2:1 for Large roof-mounted systems and a ratio of 3:2 for Ground-mounted systems.
Results of the prime cost comparison incl. PV battery systems
As the last evaluation of the figures from 2022 had already shown, the PV LCOE compared to other energy sources. According to the new study by Fraunhofer ISE, they have now been able to extend their lead even further.
The cheapest options for generating electricity are still Solar parks. They are currently between 4.1 and 6.9 cents per kilowatt hour. The researchers predict that these costs could fall to between 3.1 and 5.0 cents per kilowatt hour by 2045. Photovoltaics on roof surfaces currently produce between 5.7 and 8.8 cents per kilowatt hour of electricity in southern Germany and between 7.8 and 12 cents per kilowatt hour in northern Germany. These values could also fall to between 4.9 and 10.4 cents per kilowatt hour in 20 years.
What is new is the realization that the prime costs for PV systems combined with Large battery storage systems lower are as Conventional power plants. The researchers calculated a current price of between 7.3 and 16.0 cents per kilowatt hour for larger PV battery systems. For the combination of ground-mounted systems and battery storage systems, the costs are between 6.0 and 10.8 cents per kilowatt hour.
If storage prices fall to the forecast prices of 180 to 700 euros per kilowatt hour by 2045, the Fraunhofer Institute even expects production costs for roof-mounted PV battery systems of between 4.9 and 10.4 and ground-mounted PV battery systems of between 3,1 and 5.0 cents. Overall, however, the results show that the costs vary with the size of the PV system and the ratio of PV power and battery storage.
In comparison, the production costs for fossil power plants are significantly higher today: lignite-fired power plants cost 15.1 to 25.7 cents, hard coal-fired power plants 17.3 to 29.3 cents, combined cycle power plants 10.9 to 18.1 cents and flexible gas-fired power plants 15.4 to 32.6 cents per kilowatt hour. Nuclear power plants range from 13.6 to 49.0 cents per kilowatt hour. A switch from natural gas to hydrogen in 2035 would result in costs of 20.4 to 35.6 cents per kilowatt hour.
Expandable: PV battery systems in the industry
Most of the storage systems that contribute to the total storage capacity in Germany today are either home storage systems with a capacity of up to 30 kWh or large storage systems with a capacity of 1,000 kWh or more. Storage systems with a capacity between 5 and 10 kWh account for 45% of the total capacity, while storage systems with 10 to 20 kWh account for 28%. Large storage facilities with a capacity of over 1 MWh contribute 13%, while small storage facilities with a capacity of less than 5 kWh account for 7%. Storage systems in the 30 to 1,000 kWh range, which are typically used in the commercial and industrial sectors, have so far only played a minor role.
It is precisely in this area that battery systems can demonstrate their advantages for energy-intensive companies. This is made possible by Peak Shavingload shifting and intelligent load management. Grid fee reductions are also available for atypical grid usage or constant consumption values, for example. Battery storage systems are also suitable for optimizing self-consumption of self-generated energy, stabilizing the company's own grid or as an additional source of income on the balancing energy market.
PV battery systems pay off and production costs fall
The production costs for renewable energies, particularly photovoltaics, continue to develop positively, even when storage systems are integrated. According to the study, new solar systems, even with storage, are competitive compared to conventional power plants. The cost of solar power that is temporarily stored in batteries is between 6 and 22.5 cents per kilowatt hour, depending on the size of the system. At the same time, the Battery storage revenues continuous.
Without storage, the costs are even lower. The costs for solar and wind power will continue to fall until 2045, while conventional power plants will become more expensive. Storage solutions will remain important to balance out weather-dependent electricity production, but they will drive costs up slightly. Despite these additional costs, renewables remain cheaper than fossil alternatives, with the exception of natural gas. Technologies such as hydrogen and biomass offer flexibility but are more costly.