The investment costs for the urgently needed Power grid expansion in Germany increase with every new estimate. According to the latest calculations by the Federal Network Agency, which are based on the current Network Development Plan (NDP), the necessary investments up to 2045 for the transmission grids now amount to 327,7 and for the distribution grids around 200 billion euros. In 2023, the estimates were still around 300 and 150 billion euros respectively.
18,000 km of new routes for the expansion of the electricity grid
The four major transmission system operators expect electricity consumption in Germany to increase by 2045. double will be. In addition, the share of renewable energies will increase to around 700 GW per year, they predict. The current German electricity grid, which is around 37,000 km long, is already completely overloaded. In order to meet future demand, the electricity grid is to be expanded by 18,000 km be expanded. Three new north-south routes and two new east-west routes with a total length of 4,800 km are planned. In addition, the experts expect 8,500 km of new routes to connect offshore wind farms. The remaining 4,700 km will be used to strengthen existing connections.
Cost drivers for electricity grid expansion
Estimates of investment costs for the expansion of the electricity grid continue to rise for various reasons. The main drivers are subsequently submitted or Changed projects and global competition for electrotechnical components. The High global demand The demand for special products required for the expansion of the electricity grid is causing prices to rise. In addition, the increasing feed-in of decentralized electricity generators such as wind and solar power plants as well as the rapid growth in electricity consumption by Heat pumps and Electric cars considerable investment in the expansion and intelligent control of distribution grids.
The energy transition requires extensive power grids, especially to transport green electricity from the north of Germany to the south. In addition, it must be transported from the decentralized renewable energy plants to the consumers. Inflation, higher material and personnel costs and legal disputes all contribute to the increased costs.
The decision made in 2015 to discontinue the underground instead of above ground The preference for underground power lines has also led to considerable cost increases. The construction of underground cables is more expensive, more complicated and requires more maintenance. Bavaria's veto significantly delayed projects such as Südlink and Südostlink, which also jeopardized public acceptance of the energy transition. The Federal Network Agency estimates that 35.3 billion euros could be saved if instead Overhead lines would be used. Although some federal states and political parties are calling for a return to the cheaper overhead lines, Federal Economics Minister Robert Habeck is refusing to change the regulation in order to avoid further delays and additional planning costs.
Unclear cost distribution of the electricity grid expansion
The costs for the expansion of the electricity grid are mainly covered by the Electricity grid charges by consumers. These charges for private households have already more than doubled in the last year from 3.12 to 6.43 cents per kilowatt hour and would presumably have to be increased in the future. continue to rise. The political decisions on financing the expansion of the electricity grid have not yet been finalized. As an alternative to increasing grid fees, the German government could finance part of the costs from tax revenue or oblige the energy companies to bear the costs themselves. For Subsidies and Subsidies However, it would have to make budget funds available for this.
Grid operators and energy companies also have the option of financing private-sector investments via long-term financing models such as Loans or Bonds to secure the future. Public-private partnerships (PPP) or green bonds, for example, can be used for this purpose. International development banks such as the European Investment Bank (EIB) can also provide financial assistance through credits and loans. These are secured by long-term contracts and stable sources of income and offer financial assistance, particularly for projects with a strong public interest.
Overall, financing the expansion of the electricity grid in Germany requires a mix of different sources in order to cover the considerable costs and at the same time ensure that the financing is sustainable and fairly distributed. Both long-term planning and the ability to adapt to changing economic and technological conditions are crucial.
Conclusion
Financing the expansion of the electricity grid in Germany poses a considerable challenge, as costs are rising continuously. Current estimates by the Federal Network Agency amount to 327.7 billion euros for the transmission grids and around 200 billion euros for the distribution grids by 2045. Cost drivers include changes to projects, global competition for electrotechnical components, increased demand from renewable energies, heat pumps and electric cars as well as the decision to use more expensive underground routes.
It remains to be seen whether the current higher cost estimate for the expansion of the electricity grid is at all suitable for long-term planning due to economic and technological changes. So far, the figures have only ever been revised upwards.