In about ten years, experts expect a real boom in PV modernization in Germany. This is because the theoretical technical lifespan of many solar systems installed about ten years ago will end, provided they have not been repowered by then. Between 2034 and 2037, PV and wind power plants in Germany older than 54 Gigawatts installed capacity reaching the end of their technical lifespan. This is more than a third of the current German renewable energy capacity.
Average lifespan without repowering
Overall, renewable energy systems are designed for long-term electricity generation, but their lifespan is not unlimited. How long a PV or wind turbine can actually be operated economically depends heavily on the technology, the quality of components, as well as maintenance and site conditions.
With Solar systems do scientists generally expect Service life from about 25 years without PV modernization or Repowering. High-quality modules can generate electricity for as long as 35 to 40 years—albeit with declining output. After 25 years, many modules still deliver about 80% of their original output. For other system components, such as inverters, experts estimate a lifespan of approximately 10 to 15 years.
With Wind turbines is the typical Service life approximately 20 years. With regular maintenance, longer operation is also possible. Offshore facilities are usually approved for 25 years but can be operated for up to 30 or 35 years with appropriate concepts. Nevertheless, all operators will face the decision at the latest after 20-25 years: continue operation, modernize, or replace with new technology.
PV modernization and repowering will gain importance in the future
Operators of photovoltaic systems should not only consider PV modernization or repowering at the end of their operating life, but early strategies develop. By specifically replacing older or underperforming components—such as solar modules, inverters, or wiring—yield can be increased, lifespan extended, and profitability enhanced. New concepts, such as expanding the systems with Large-scale battery storage can increase self-consumption and guarantee stable long-term returns. Small, more cost-effective measures, such as the implementation of monitoring or a complete Energy management system.
Boom in the mid-30s for PV modernization & wind power repowering
Repowering of wind turbines in Germany is already taking place at an annual rate of 4-5 GW. Starting around 2030, the first PV systems built in the early to mid-2000s will be added. By around the mid-2030s, a large portion of the solar systems currently installed will reach the end of their technical lifespan, provided no PV modernization has been carried out by then. Experts expect that between 2030 and 2040, PV systems with a total capacity of over 35 GW and wind turbines with a total capacity of 48 GW could become inoperable due to age during this period.
Older photovoltaic systems installed between 2009 and 2012 are particularly affected by the boom in the mid-2030s. Many of these systems feed into the public grid via the EEG and are then approaching the end of their funding and operating life. However, this also means that demand for components, skilled workers, and approval procedures will increase in about ten years. The sooner renewable energy system operators investigate PV modernization or wind power repowering potentials, the better bottlenecks can be avoided and investments strategically planned.
Strategically planning PV modernization: What operators should do now
The expected wave of renewals starting in the mid-2030s requires forward-thinking action. Operators of solar and wind power plants should already be examining today how they can operate their plants economically in the long term – and whether PV modernization, retrofitting, or complete repowering makes sense.
The following steps are recommended now:
- Inventory and Appraisal: Analyze the condition, performance, and technical age of the plant – especially for commissioning between 2009 and 2012.
- Identify modernization potentials: Are components like inverters, wiring, or modules in need of replacement? Are there optimization possibilities through monitoring or storage systems?
- Recalculate profitability: Is continuing operations worthwhile, or would a technical renewal be more economical? Subsidizing, increasing maintenance costs, or electricity marketing play a central role here.
- Initiate planning early: By the mid-2030s, demand for technology, skilled professionals, and permits will increase significantly. Those who act in time will secure capacity and can implement renovations efficiently.
In short: Now is the right time to strategically prepare for the future of your own renewable energy system – before the market and capacities come under pressure.