Comparison of electricity price forecasts

Fundamental to the current Electricity price forecasts The study is BloombergNEF's „New Energy Outlook 2025“ from April 2025. It is considered one of the most comprehensive models in expert circles. Based on this, new publications emerged throughout 2025, which also incorporate international commodity and market developments. An update of the BloombergNEF study with additional sources, published by „Focus“ in early October 2025, considers the latest price data, shifts in assumptions, and recent political measures. All of them consider a period up to at least 2035 and make forecasts about Pure stock market electricity price regardless of Electricity taxes, Network charges or other allowances.

Following all electricity price forecasts, Germany is facing a Phase of sharply fluctuating wholesale prices – initially, relief is expected by 2035, and subsequently, they expect a renewed increase. If regulation sets intelligent frameworks, further promotes the expansion of renewables, and adapts market design, the Price volatility at European level gradually after 2035 weaken. This also includes the increasing use of large-scale battery storage and flexibility solutions to increase grid stability.

Short-term: High prices due to gas and geopolitical risks

For 2025, most electricity price forecasts expect an average wholesale price of around 80-85 euros per megawatt-hour – slightly above last year's value. The main reasons continue to be high gas prices and a volatile geopolitical situation. This means that the German electricity market short-term, closely linked to fossil fuels, while at the same time, the expansion of renewable energies is gaining momentum. Diverse short-term forecasts therefore expect relatively stable or even slightly falling prices for 2026.

Electricity price forecasts expect volatile prices until 2030

For the period up to 2030, forecasts for electricity prices are relatively far apart. This is attributed to uncertain assumptions about the pace of renewable energy expansion, advances in storage technologies, and the actual electricity demand of large industrial consumers such as data centers or the hydrogen economy. While all studies confirm that additional wind and solar capacities generally have a price-dampening effect, industry analysts warn of the so-called „Cannibalization Effect“. Here, wholesale electricity prices at times fall significantly during high renewable energy phases, which benefits consumers in the short term but could make new investments in renewable facilities more difficult in the medium term.

Furthermore, the further development of gas prices and international emissions trading remain crucial for the overall economic development of electricity prices. The uncertainties lead to scenario ranges up to 2030 varying between approximately 50 and 120 €/MWH lies. Prognos even expects electricity price peaks during this phase of up to €250/MWh.  

Medium-term to 2035: Renewables drive down prices – but with risks

However, many electricity price forecasts from leading market research institutes give cause for cautious optimism between 2030 and 2035. In the various scenarios, a decrease in wholesale electricity prices is expected thanks to the massive expansion of renewable energies. The most optimistic studies even expect wholesale electricity prices of less than €50/MWh. You assume that wind and solar power will increasingly displace more expensive fossil fuels in generation. However, should the expansion of renewables lag behind, gas prices rise, and the CO₂ pricing attract, experts calculate average electricity prices of up to 135 EUR/MWh.

The future electricity price therefore depends not only on the development of renewables, but also significantly on how quickly storage technologies and grid capacities catch up, and how regulatory frameworks guide market integration. In addition, there is price volatility and rising electricity demand, for example due to Sector coupling, Digitization and new large consumers, such as data centers, could cause a trend reversal again from 2035 onwards.

The mid-term scenarios show that while the energy market transformation can lead to lower wholesale prices, this is only the case if accompanying measures for grid expansion, flexibility, and political steering are consistently implemented. Otherwise, following a relief phase, there is a risk of a phase of rising prices and increased volatility.

Overview of long-term electricity price forecasts

Long-term: Return of rising prices after 2035?

Starting in 2035, long-term electricity price forecasts expect a trend reversal again: While the strong expansion of renewable energies and the massive decline in gas costs previously led to historically low wholesale prices, electricity prices are expected to rise slightly again in the years after 2035. For example, the latest study by BloombergNEF predicts an increase to over 90 €/MWh by 2050. This corresponds to an annual increase of approximately 3 % starting in the mid-2030s. Other institutions estimate that the exchange-traded electricity price will be between 75 and 104 €/MWh.

The more stable and slowly rising prices are justified by the fact that with increasing integration of renewable energies, storage, flexibility, and grid expansion will increasingly need to be financed in the future. These will be incorporated into price formation, as will the contribution of flexible gas power plants to additional security of supply. At the same time, the volatility of renewable energies remains an issue. Flexible Consumers although they benefit from low spot prices, the system value of generation fluctuates much more significantly than in the fossil-dominated era.

Conclusion: Between price pressure and investment incentives

Current electricity price forecasts illustrate this: the market is facing a price rally between falling and rising prices. While BloombergNEF expects wholesale prices to drop sharply in the short term, other models foresee a higher price level – driven by growing demand, grid bottlenecks, and geopolitical uncertainty.

For the energy industry, it remains crucial how well politics and market mechanisms react to this dynamic. Flexible market design, sufficient investment incentives for Large-scale battery storage and grids, as well as a clear regulatory framework, will be decisive factors in whether the European electricity market remains affordable, stable, and climate-neutral in the coming decades.