{"id":34358,"date":"2026-09-10T14:57:20","date_gmt":"2026-09-10T12:57:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/?p=34358"},"modified":"2026-09-25T09:07:25","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T07:07:25","slug":"une-etude-sur-le-photovoltaique-a-reduit-les-prix-de-lelectricite-de-208-en-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/fr\/studie-photovoltaik-senkte-strompreise-2025-um-208\/","title":{"rendered":"\u00c9tude : le photovolta\u00efque a fait baisser les prix de l&#x27;\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 de 20,8 % en 2025 %"},"content":{"rendered":"<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Aper\u00e7u rapide<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019entreprise de conseil en \u00e9nergie \u00e9olienne enervis a r\u00e9alis\u00e9, pour le compte du BSW-Solar (Association f\u00e9d\u00e9rale de l\u2019\u00e9nergie solaire), une \u00e9tude succincte \u00e0 jour. Selon cette \u00e9tude, les 118 GWp install\u00e9s de panneaux solaires ont diminu\u00e9 de 10,5 % en 2018. <strong>Puissance photovolta\u00efque<\/strong> Les prix de d\u00e9tail des grossistes allemands en 2025, en moyenne annuelle, devraient augmenter <strong>20,8 %<\/strong>. La valeur totale \u00e9conomique de la production photovolta\u00efque \u2013 provenant de co\u00fbts d\u2019acquisition \u00e9vit\u00e9s et d\u2019extraits de recettes d\u2019exportation suppl\u00e9mentaires \u2013 s\u2019\u00e9levait en 2025 \u00e0 <strong>15,7 milliards d'euros<\/strong>. Avec \u00e7a, il \u00e9tait l\u00e0. <strong>44 % sur les co\u00fbts de soutien du EEG<\/strong> pour la photovolta\u00efque.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">R\u00e9sultats cl\u00e9s de l'\u00e9tude<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Enervis a model\u00e9 deux sc\u00e9narios pour l\u2019analyse : dans le premier sc\u00e9nario, l\u2019\u00e9tude compare le d\u00e9veloppement r\u00e9el de l\u2019\u00e9conomie au march\u00e9 en 2025 avec les capacit\u00e9s install\u00e9es de PV d\u2019environ 118 GWp. Dans le second sc\u00e9nario hypoth\u00e9tique, elle simule l\u2019absence totale de production photovolta\u00efque en Allemagne. Le mod\u00e8le de base est le mod\u00e8le fondamental du march\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 europ\u00e9en d\u2019enervis, avec une r\u00e9solution horaire.<br><br>Il importe de tenir compte du fait que les <strong>Des \u00e9conomies pour tous les consommateurs<\/strong> Cela est vrai. Si une production d\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ind\u00e9pendante est ajout\u00e9e, les effets s\u2019intensifient naturellement encore davantage.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><\/td><td><strong>Sc\u00e9nario de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence (avec PV)<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Sc\u00e9nario sans \u00e9nergie solaire<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Effet<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Prix de gros moyen en 2025<\/td><td>89,3 \u20ac\/MWh<\/td><td>112,8 \u20ac\/MWh<\/td><td>\u201320,8 (% \u201323,5 \u20ac\/MWh)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Part des \u00e9nergies vertes<\/td><td>63 %<\/td><td>45 %<\/td><td>\u201318 %<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Besoin suppl\u00e9mentaire de carburant<\/td><td>\u2013<\/td><td>environ 3,96 milliards de m\u00e8tres cubes de gaz, <br>environ 11 millions de tonnes de charbon<\/td><td>\u2013<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00c9conomie d'\u00e9nergie pour l'industrie (10 GWh\/an)<\/td><td>\u2013<\/td><td>\u2013<\/td><td>environ 235.000 \u20ac par an<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>\u00c9conomie d'\u00e9nergie (4 MWh\/an)<\/td><td>\u2013<\/td><td>\u2013<\/td><td>environ 94 \u20ac par an<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Selon l'\u00e9tude, cet effet de r\u00e9duction des prix se manifeste dans tous les mois de l'ann\u00e9e. Toutefois, il est le plus prononc\u00e9 en \u00e9t\u00e9 et dans l'apr\u00e8s-midi. Ces p\u00e9riodes sont pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment celles o\u00f9 l'apport de PV est le plus important et o\u00f9 l'effet de la demande de prix (merit order effect) pousse les centrales conventionnelles et plus co\u00fbteuses hors du march\u00e9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Le co\u00fbt total des \u00e9conomies d\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 exc\u00e8de les co\u00fbts de financement<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La diff\u00e9rence de prix sur le march\u00e9 de gros (13,1 milliards d\u2019euros) et les recettes suppl\u00e9mentaires provenant des exportations d\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 (2,6 milliards d\u2019euros) donnent un chiffre pour 2025 de <strong>Valeur totale \u00e9conomique<\/strong> la production d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 \u00e0 partir de <strong>15,7 milliards d'euros<\/strong>. Cette valeur \u00e9tait d'environ 44 % % sup\u00e9rieure aux co\u00fbts de soutien au photovolta\u00efque pr\u00e9vus pour 2025. BSW-Solar consid\u00e8re cela comme la preuve que le soutien gouvernemental au photovolta\u00efque rapporte d\u00e9sormais aussi \u00e9conomiquement. <strong>Pas inclus<\/strong> Il y a \u00e9galement d'autres effets comme <strong>Co\u00fbts de dommages \u00e0 l'environnement \u00e9vit\u00e9s<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Classification : les PV r\u00e9duisent les prix, la flexibilit\u00e9 accro\u00eet encore les avantages<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">L\u2019\u00e9tude en cours de enervis examine uniquement l\u2019effet purement m\u00e9ritoire de la production d\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 \u00e0 grande \u00e9chelle sur le march\u00e9 du gros-commerce. Elle compl\u00e8te ainsi les r\u00e9sultats de la petite \u00e9tude r\u00e9alis\u00e9e au printemps 2026 par l\u2019Institut Fraunhofer pour l\u2019\u00c9conomie de l\u2019\u00c9nergie et la Technologie des Syst\u00e8mes \u00c9nerg\u00e9tiques (IEE), qui avait \u00e9galement \u00e9t\u00e9 charg\u00e9 par BEE. Fraunhofer a ainsi calcul\u00e9 le b\u00e9n\u00e9fice \u00e9conomique suppl\u00e9mentaire des batteries et d\u2019autres options de flexibilit\u00e9. Selon cette \u00e9tude, <a href=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/fr\/etude-fraunhofer-sur-le-stockage-par-batterie-et-le-soulagement-du-systeme-electrique\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"30449\">Les batteries constituent 3,9 milliards d\u2019euros de plus pour le syst\u00e8me \u00e9lectrique par an<\/a> soulager.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Alors que l\u2019\u00e9tude en cours en mati\u00e8re d\u2019\u00e9nergie solaire quantifie la valeur de la production d\u2019\u00e9nergie solaire, l\u2019analyse de Fraunhofer montre le potentiel de stockage suppl\u00e9mentaire. Environ 20 GW de capacit\u00e9 de stockage avec quatre heures de capacit\u00e9 pourraient combler une grande partie de l\u2019\u00e9cart de flexibilit\u00e9 existant. Cela permettrait de r\u00e9duire les prix n\u00e9gatifs de l\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9, les r\u00e9gulations tarifaires et les co\u00fbts de production.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les deux \u00e9tudes aboutissent ainsi \u00e0 une conclusion similaire : le d\u00e9veloppement suppl\u00e9mentaire de l\u2019\u00e9nergie photovolta\u00efque reste \u00e9conomiquement judicieux. Toutefois, il ne pourra pleinement se d\u00e9ployer \u00e0 moins que cela soit associ\u00e9 \u00e0 des batteries et \u00e0 une flexibilit\u00e9 suppl\u00e9mentaire. Pour en savoir plus, consultez l\u2019article suivant : <a href=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/fr\/commercialisation-de-la-flexibilite-pour-les-exploitants-de-reseaux-de-batteries-modeles-contrats-agregateurs-en-comparaison\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"31012\">Commercialisation de la flexibilit\u00e9 pour les exploitants de BESS<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Contexte politique<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">La nouvelle \u00e9tude enervis souligne les exigences du BSW-Solar concernant un cadre continuant de garantir la croissance du photovolta\u00efque. Les r\u00e9sultats montrent clairement que le photovolta\u00efque r\u00e9duit les prix de l\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 sur les march\u00e9s et rend le syst\u00e8me \u00e9nerg\u00e9tique allemand plus r\u00e9silient. Surtout en regard des r\u00e9formes \u00e0 venir et pr\u00e9vues. <a href=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/fr\/apercu-du-paquet-reseau-eeg-2027-et-de-la-decision-du-cabinet-sur-la-contribution-de-refinancement-des-cfd\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"33005\">EEG 2027 &amp; paquet de mesures en mati\u00e8re de r\u00e9seau<\/a>, Cette information est particuli\u00e8rement importante et constitue un signe clair adress\u00e9 au Bundestag, qui doit encore se prononcer \u00e0 ce sujet. Le groupe de l\u2019industrie photovolta\u00efque plaide depuis longtemps en faveur d\u2019une construction acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e des parcs photovolta\u00efques combin\u00e9e \u00e0 une expansion acc\u00e9l\u00e9r\u00e9e des batteries. La disparit\u00e9 constat\u00e9e entre les co\u00fbts de financement et la valeur marchande de l\u2019\u00e9nergie photovolta\u00efque fournit ainsi une justification \u00e9conomique suppl\u00e9mentaire.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">FAQ<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Comment a-t-on calcul\u00e9 la baisse des prix gr\u00e2ce au photovolta\u00efque ?<\/summary>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Enervis a simul\u00e9 deux sc\u00e9narios pour 2025 avec un mod\u00e8le europ\u00e9en du march\u00e9 de l\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 : l\u2019un avec les capacit\u00e9s install\u00e9es de PV de 118 GWp environ et l\u2019autre sans aucune production de PV. La diff\u00e9rence entre les prix de l\u2019\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 r\u00e9sultant en fait l\u2019effet de prix.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Que se passe-t-il sans PV avec le manque de quantit\u00e9 d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ?<\/summary>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Selon l'\u00e9tude, la p\u00e9nurie de production photovolta\u00efque serait principalement compens\u00e9e par des importations suppl\u00e9mentaires d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 ainsi que par une augmentation de la production d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 \u00e0 partir de centrales \u00e0 gaz et \u00e0 charbon sur le territoire national \u2013 avec un besoin de carburant plus important et un taux de production d'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 verte inf\u00e9rieur de 18 points de pourcentage.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Les frais de r\u00e9seau sont-ils inclus dans les 15,7 milliards d'euros ?<\/summary>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Non. L\u2019\u00e9tude ne porte que sur le march\u00e9 de gros et les recettes suppl\u00e9mentaires des exportateurs. Les co\u00fbts de r\u00e9seau, les honoraires et d\u2019autres effets \u00e9conomiques (par exemple, la r\u00e9duction des dommages climatiques) ne sont pas pris en compte.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<details class=\"wp-block-details is-layout-flow wp-block-details-is-layout-flow\"><summary>Comment se compare cette \u00e9tude \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9tude de Fraunhofer-IEE sur la flexibilit\u00e9 ?<\/summary>\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Les deux \u00e9tudes se compl\u00e8tent : enervis montre l\u2019effet purement prix de la puissance photovolta\u00efque d\u00e9j\u00e0 install\u00e9e, tandis que Fraunhofer IEE\/BEE montre quels avantages suppl\u00e9mentaires un d\u00e9veloppement cibl\u00e9 des capacit\u00e9s de stockage pourrait apporter pour combler le d\u00e9ficit de flexibilit\u00e9 restant.<\/p>\n<\/details>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sources<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>enervis energy advisors GmbH pour BSW-Solar : \u201e \u00c9tude sur les effets de la production photovolta\u00efque sur les prix du courant \u00e9lectrique \u00e0 grande distribution \u201d, Berlin, 18.06.2026<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Bundesverband Solarwirtschaft (BSW-Solar) : Communiqu\u00e9 de presse \u201e \u00c9tude : Sans \u00e9lectricit\u00e9 solaire, les prix du march\u00e9 seraient environ 20 % plus \u00e9lev\u00e9s \u201d, 02.09.2026<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Le photovolta\u00efque r\u00e9duit non seulement les \u00e9missions de CO\u2082, mais aussi les prix de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9. Une \u00e9tude r\u00e9cente d'enervis montre la valeur \u00e9conomique qu'a repr\u00e9sent\u00e9e l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 solaire en 2025 pour le march\u00e9 allemand de l'\u00e9lectricit\u00e9 \u2013 et pourquoi le stockage pourra encore amplifier cet effet \u00e0 l'avenir.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":395,"featured_media":34361,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-34358","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-solar-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Studie: PV senkt Strompreise 2025 um 20,8 %<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Neue enervis-Studie f\u00fcr BSW-Solar: Photovoltaik senkt die Strompreise 2025 um 20,8 %. Gesamtwert: 15,7 Mrd. \u20ac. 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