{"id":24578,"date":"2025-09-05T09:24:46","date_gmt":"2025-09-05T07:24:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/?p=24578"},"modified":"2026-04-28T10:53:39","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T08:53:39","slug":"informe-de-seguimiento-de-la-transicion-energetica","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/es\/monitoringbericht-zur-energiewende\/","title":{"rendered":"Informe de seguimiento sobre la transici\u00f3n energ\u00e9tica: estudios advierten sobre los riesgos de una desaceleraci\u00f3n"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">En los pr\u00f3ximos d\u00edas, el <strong>Informe de seguimiento sobre la transici\u00f3n energ\u00e9tica<\/strong> esperado, que fue elaborado por el Instituto de Econom\u00eda Energ\u00e9tica (EWI) por encargo del Ministerio Federal de Econom\u00eda y Protecci\u00f3n Clim\u00e1tica (BMWK). Ya de antemano se debate intensamente sobre el informe. Los cr\u00edticos temen que el an\u00e1lisis pueda servir principalmente para frenar la expansi\u00f3n de las energ\u00edas renovables y el aparentemente ya planeado <strong>Construcci\u00f3n de plantas de gas<\/strong> justificar. Paralelamente al proceso en curso, han aparecido varios estudios que investigan las posibles consecuencias de una ralentizaci\u00f3n en el desarrollo de la energ\u00eda fotovoltaica y e\u00f3lica. Los resultados aclaran que una desaceleraci\u00f3n conllevar\u00eda riesgos significativos para la protecci\u00f3n del clima, los costes energ\u00e9ticos y la seguridad del suministro.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Consecuencias de una expansi\u00f3n ralentizada<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un breve estudio encargado por Greenpeace y Green Planet Energy a la consultora <strong>Enervis Energy Advisors<\/strong> analiza diferentes trayectorias de desarrollo para el per\u00edodo hasta 2035. El punto de partida es el escenario de referencia, que se basa en los objetivos ya establecidos. Seg\u00fan la EEG 2023, estos son: 215 gigavatios de potencia fotovoltaica y 145 gigavatios de energ\u00eda e\u00f3lica hasta 2030, as\u00ed como un fuerte impulso en veh\u00edculos el\u00e9ctricos y bombas de calor. Para lograr esto, es necesario un <a href=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/es\/crecimiento-anual-de-22-gigavatios-de-capacidad-solar-en-planificacion\/\">crecimiento anual de 22 gigavatios de capacidad solar<\/a> planeado. Este escenario compara Enervis con variantes que asumen un desarrollo considerablemente m\u00e1s lento tanto de las energ\u00edas renovables como de la electrificaci\u00f3n.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Los resultados muestran: Si bien las diferencias en el sector el\u00e9ctrico se mantienen inicialmente dentro de los l\u00edmites, las emisiones de CO\u2082 en el transporte y la calefacci\u00f3n aumentan significativamente si se mantiene la dependencia de los combustibles f\u00f3siles a largo plazo. Para 2035, esto se suma a <strong>adicional<\/strong> emisiones en <strong>hasta 381 millones de toneladas<\/strong>. A esto se sumar\u00edan otras 62 millones de toneladas si el consumo de electricidad aumenta y el desarrollo de las energ\u00edas renovables se estanca. Los expertos calculan este valor con una producci\u00f3n adicional de electricidad de <strong>10 TWh<\/strong> de centrales el\u00e9ctricas de gas. Por el contrario y <strong>sin generaci\u00f3n adicional de gas y carb\u00f3n<\/strong> se dejaron incluso redondos <strong>Evitar 76 millones de toneladas de CO\u2082<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Adem\u00e1s de los impactos clim\u00e1ticos, el estudio tambi\u00e9n pone de manifiesto los riesgos econ\u00f3micos de una ralentizaci\u00f3n de la expansi\u00f3n. Solo a trav\u00e9s del comercio de derechos de emisi\u00f3n de la UE, podr\u00edan generarse costes adicionales de hasta 8.400 millones de euros al a\u00f1o para 2030. Los costes sociales del clima, calculados sobre la base de datos de la Agencia Federal de Medio Ambiente, se suman <strong>hasta 2035 a hasta 128 mil millones de euros<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"448\" src=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Enervis-1024x448.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-24579\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Enervis-1024x448.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Enervis-300x131.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Enervis-768x336.jpg 768w, https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Enervis-1536x672.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Enervis-18x8.jpg 18w, https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Enervis.jpg 1606w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Eficiencia de costos como criterio pol\u00edtico en el informe de seguimiento de la transici\u00f3n energ\u00e9tica<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El Ministerio Federal de Econom\u00eda y Protecci\u00f3n del Clima (BMWK) encarg\u00f3 el informe de seguimiento sobre la transici\u00f3n energ\u00e9tica con un fuerte enfoque en la eficiencia de costos. Organizaciones medioambientales como Germanwatch critican que esta perspectiva representa de manera insuficiente las consecuencias clim\u00e1ticas a largo plazo y los costos econ\u00f3micos generales. Si bien un ritmo m\u00e1s lento podr\u00eda reducir las inversiones a corto plazo, a cambio <strong>Sanciones<\/strong> a la UE, <strong>aumento de los precios de los certificados de CO\u2082<\/strong> y se generan mayores dependencias de las importaciones de combustibles f\u00f3siles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">El estudio de Enervis ilustra este conflicto de objetivos: los escenarios con una expansi\u00f3n frenada no solo conducen a mayores emisiones, sino tambi\u00e9n a costos adicionales para el Estado, las empresas y los consumidores. Por el contrario, una expansi\u00f3n ambiciosa de las energ\u00edas renovables reduce la dependencia de las importaciones a largo plazo y crea margen para una disminuci\u00f3n de los precios de la electricidad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">An\u00e1lisis de Agora Energiewende<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Un hallazgo similar presenta el grupo de expertos Agora Energiewende en un estudio propio. Compara dos escenarios para el desarrollo hasta 2030 y destaca cuatro palancas clave: una electrificaci\u00f3n acelerada, la expansi\u00f3n espec\u00edfica de las flexibilidades, una planificaci\u00f3n eficiente de la red y la expansi\u00f3n ambiciosa de las energ\u00edas renovables.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Seg\u00fan c\u00e1lculos de Agora, en un escenario ambicioso, hasta 2030 podr\u00edan adicionalmente <strong>36 millones de toneladas de CO\u2082<\/strong> ahorrarse, en comparaci\u00f3n con una ruta con infraestructura frenada. Al mismo tiempo, se podr\u00edan evitar importaciones de energ\u00eda f\u00f3sil por valor de hasta siete mil millones de euros al a\u00f1o. Adem\u00e1s, el an\u00e1lisis espera que la expansi\u00f3n de la energ\u00eda e\u00f3lica y solar reduzca los precios de la electricidad hasta 2030 en <strong>reducir hasta un 23 por ciento<\/strong> podr\u00eda.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Con ello, el mensaje es que una menor demanda de electricidad no debe servir como justificaci\u00f3n para una expansi\u00f3n m\u00e1s lenta de las energ\u00edas renovables. M\u00e1s bien, es necesario impulsar la electrificaci\u00f3n en los sectores del transporte, la edificaci\u00f3n y la industria, y preparar las redes a tiempo para la creciente demanda de electricidad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"182\" src=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Agora-Energiewende-1024x182.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-24581\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Agora-Energiewende-1024x182.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Agora-Energiewende-300x53.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Agora-Energiewende-768x136.jpg 768w, https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Agora-Energiewende-1536x273.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Agora-Energiewende-18x3.jpg 18w, https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/09\/Agora-Energiewende.jpg 1847w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Perspectiva del informe de monitoreo sobre la transici\u00f3n energ\u00e9tica<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Las decisiones pendientes en materia de pol\u00edtica energ\u00e9tica determinar\u00e1n en gran medida si Alemania alcanza sus objetivos clim\u00e1ticos y fortalece al mismo tiempo su competitividad. Habr\u00e1 que ver qu\u00e9 conclusiones extrae el BMWK del informe de seguimiento de la transici\u00f3n energ\u00e9tica del EWI. En cualquier caso, los estudios ya disponibles demuestran que una desaceleraci\u00f3n en la expansi\u00f3n de las energ\u00edas renovables tendr\u00eda importantes desventajas en t\u00e9rminos de pol\u00edtica clim\u00e1tica y econ\u00f3mica. Por el contrario, un rumbo ambicioso en materia de energ\u00eda e\u00f3lica y solar ofrece la oportunidad de reducir las emisiones, evitar costes en el comercio de emisiones y disminuir la dependencia de las importaciones de combustibles f\u00f3siles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Ante este contexto, resulta crucial no interpretar el informe de seguimiento de la transici\u00f3n energ\u00e9tica \u00fanicamente desde el punto de vista de los costes, sino tambi\u00e9n tener en cuenta los riesgos y oportunidades a largo plazo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/es\/categoria\/noticias-solares\/\">Volver a la vista general<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Una expansi\u00f3n ambiciosa podr\u00eda reducir los precios de la electricidad en un 23 % para 2030. Los expertos critican que el informe de seguimiento, al centrarse exclusivamente en la rentabilidad, ignore las ventajas econ\u00f3micas a largo plazo de la electrificaci\u00f3n y justifique err\u00f3neamente la construcci\u00f3n de nuevas centrales de gas.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":24585,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24578","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-solar-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Monitoringbericht zur Energiewende | CUBE CONCEPTS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Der Monitoringbericht zur Energiewende des BMWK wird erwartet. 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