{"id":32267,"date":"2026-07-27T11:50:40","date_gmt":"2026-07-27T09:50:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/?p=32267"},"modified":"2026-09-25T09:45:34","modified_gmt":"2026-09-25T07:45:34","slug":"eu-ets-reform-2031-free-allocation","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/en\/eu-ets-reform-2031-freie-zuteilung\/","title":{"rendered":"EU Commission presents ETS reform: More free certificates, slower falling cap"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">On July 20, 2026, the European Commission presented its legislative proposal for a weakened ETS Phase 5 (2031\u20132040). Key points of the <strong>ETS Reform<\/strong> are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>More free certificates<\/strong> through a conditionalized, longer-term free allocation for industry.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Upper limit <\/strong>of the tradable ETS certificates should<strong> sink slower.<\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Relaxed Market Stability Reserve<\/strong> (Admission rate drops from 24 to 12 percent starting in 2028).<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Expansion<\/strong> of the ETS system to short-haul flights and waste incineration.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What the Commission is proposing on the ETS reform<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Responsible for the proposal is the Dutch EU Climate Commissioner Wopke Hoekstra, who drafted the legal framework for the fifth trading period of the EU ETS I. The reform proposal is intended to align the system with the new weakened climate target. Accordingly, the EU is aiming <strong>90 % less<\/strong> Net greenhouse gases <strong>by 2040<\/strong> compared to 1990. One of the reasons for this is growing concern over the exodus of energy-intensive industries from Germany, France, and Italy, which have been warning for months about rising CO\u2082 costs. Rather than relying solely on supply constraints, the draft bill links financial relief to new decarbonization obligations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Free certificates: longer, but tied to conditions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Starting in 2031, the entire free allocation will depend on a verified, annual <strong>Decarbonization Investment Plan<\/strong>. Companies receive <strong>80 %<\/strong> the free certificates according to the approved plan \u2013 the remaining <strong>20 %<\/strong> only once the promised emission reductions have actually been verified at the end of the respective five-year period. Starting in 2036, companies will also be allowed to offset up to 2 % of their obligations through decarbonization projects in third countries.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This is not merely a slowdown of the phase-out, as was originally [intended\/expected] in the context of the carbon border adjustment (<a href=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/en\/cbam-the-co%e2%82%82-border-adjustment-system\/\" data-type=\"post\" data-id=\"10856\">CBAM<\/a>was intended for the affected sectors, but a reconditioning. Whoever proves climate protection gets free certificates longer. Whoever does not deliver loses part of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Market stability reserve is being relaxed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Also regarding the central supply-side control mechanism of EU ETS I, the <a href=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/en\/market-stability-reserve-in-emissions-trading\/\">Market stability reserve<\/a>, the reform takes effect: Starting in 2028, the absorption rate for surplus allowances is set to decrease from 24 to 12 %. This means that in the event of a surplus in the future, <strong>significantly fewer certificates<\/strong> per year <strong>into reserve<\/strong> hiking and <strong>correspondingly more in the market<\/strong> remain. In addition, the plan is for allowances to be able to remain in the reserve permanently in the future, rather than being canceled as has been the case so far\u2014a step intended to increase the system\u2019s flexibility while also maintaining a greater potential supply in the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Expansion to aviation &amp; waste incineration<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">While the burden on industry is being noticeably eased, the ETS is expanding in other areas. The Commission proposes to include flights to airports in a <strong>radius of 5,000 kilometers <\/strong>to include the geographical center of the EU \u2013 which in future would also cover transport hubs in Turkey and the Middle East, while North America remains excluded. The phase-out of free allowances for intra-European aviation is being maintained: the allocation will expire at the end of 2026, <strong>starting in 2027<\/strong> Do airlines pay in full for every tonne of CO\u2082? Newly added is waste incineration, whose emissions are also to be subject to emissions trading in the future. The ETS will thus, similar to recently <a href=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/en\/eu-postpones-start-of-ets-ii-to-2028\/\">postponement of the launch of ETS II to 2028<\/a> gradually expanded to further areas \u2013 only this time within the existing ETS I instead of via a new subsystem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Relief for industry &amp; criticism of the ETS reform<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Commission President Ursula von der Leyen describes the proposed ETS reform as \u201eadapting our carbon market to changing global realities.\u201d Experts from the political sphere and civil society, as well as representatives of the renewable energy sector, see it differently and speak of a weakening of the system. The affected sectors\u2014the fossil fuel industry, energy-intensive industries (steel, chemicals, cement, paper, glass), air and maritime transport, and, in the future, waste incineration\u2014account for approximately 40 % of total EU greenhouse gas emissions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What this means for CO\u2082 prices and flexibility marketing<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For battery storage operators, the MSR easing is particularly relevant. A lower intake rate structurally keeps more certificates in circulation, which tends to have a dampening effect on the CO\u2082 price \u2013 similar to already the <a href=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/en\/co%e2%82%82-certificates-still-high-industrial-current-at-short-term-low\/\">Analyses on the current certificate high<\/a> As we have shown, the balance of supply and demand in the CO\u2082 market indirectly affects electricity prices and, consequently, the price spreads that BESS operators pay for <a href=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/en\/battery-storage-in-energy-trading\/\">Arbitrage and Flexibility Trading<\/a> use.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>ETS reform effects<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>direction of impact on CO2 price<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Relevance for BESS flex trading<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MSR enrollment rate <br>24% \u2192 12% (starting in 2028)<\/td><td>Dampening <br>(more certificates in the market)<\/td><td>Indirectly: lower CO\u2082 price pressure can reduce the generation costs of marginal fossil-fuel power plants and thus narrow spreads<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Certificates remain in reserve instead of being deleted<\/td><td>Slightly cushioning, <br>but more flexibly controllable<\/td><td>Indirect: potentially more stable, more predictable price trend<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Conditional free allocation from 2031<\/td><td>Tending to be neutral to slightly price-driving (incentive for decarbonization remains)<\/td><td>Low direct impact, but an investment signal for decarbonizing industrial customers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Expansion to waste incineration &amp; short-haul flights<\/td><td>Additional demand for certificates<\/td><td>Sector-specific, hardly any direct BESS reference<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Important:<\/em> These effects are trend statements based on the current reform proposal, not a reliable forecast\u2014the actual CO\u2082 price depends on significantly more factors (economic conditions, energy prices, actual negotiation outcome).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Outlook on the ETS reform proposals<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The European Parliament and member states are now deciding on the ETS reform proposal. Given the compromise between climate action and industrial protection, the trilogue negotiations are unlikely to be brief. Until final adoption, individual details\u2014in particular the specific percentages for the MSR and free allocation\u2014may still change. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The European Commission wants to noticeably weaken emissions trading from 2031: more free allowances, a relaxed market stability reserve, and new ETS sectors could have a lasting impact on the CO\u2082 market.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":395,"featured_media":32273,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-32267","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-solar-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>EU-ETS-Reform: Mehr Gratiszertifikate ab 2031<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Die EU-Kommission will eine ETS-Reform. 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