{"id":27390,"date":"2026-03-23T12:31:54","date_gmt":"2026-03-23T11:31:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/?p=27390"},"modified":"2026-05-04T09:31:41","modified_gmt":"2026-05-04T07:31:41","slug":"degradation-of-pv-systems-is-actually-much-lower-than-long-assumed","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/en\/degradation-von-pv-anlagen-real-deutlich-geringer-als-lange-angenommen\/","title":{"rendered":"Degradation of PV systems: Actually much lower than long assumed"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The long-term performance of photovoltaic systems is a central factor for economic calculations, investment decisions, and the cost of electricity generation. In practice, the <strong>Degradation of PV systems<\/strong> but often with <strong>0.8 to 1.0 percent per year<\/strong> too conservatively assumed. While usually only the manufacturer's specifications for module degradation are used, a current study by the Brandenburg University of Applied Sciences Cottbus-Senftenberg (BTU) now shows that the actual yield losses of complete PV systems are significantly lower than many previous assumptions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The large-scale evaluation of more than 1.2 million PV systems in Germany averages an actual value of approximately. <strong>0.6 percent<\/strong>, which even slows down with the increasing age of the plants. For operators, investors, and planners, this means: Many existing calculations underestimate the possible electricity yield over the lifespan - with positive effects on returns, climate benefits, and the planning of replacement investments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">What does degradation mean for PV systems?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">degradation refers to the <strong>gradual performance decline<\/strong> a photovoltaic system <strong>about the operating life<\/strong>. This is usually expressed as a percentage per year. Every panel loses a small part of its ability to convert incident solar energy into electrical energy over time \u2013 caused by material fatigue, weathering, temperature changes, UV radiation, soiling, and electrical aging processes. The crucial point is that even small differences in the assumed degradation add up over 20 or 30 years of operation to significant deviations in the expected electricity volumes and thus in revenue, cost per kilowatt-hour, and investment valuation. The distinction between different levels of consideration is important here:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Module Degradation (Physical Consideration)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Module degradation describes the loss of performance of individual PV modules under standardized conditions and is, in many cases, the only coefficient taken into account in the profitability calculation of entire systems. Typical causes that the <a href=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/en\/efficiency-of-solar-cells\/\" type=\"post\" id=\"5894\">Efficiency of solar cells<\/a> influence are:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>light-induced effects (LID)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>material-related aging<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Microcracks and cell fatigue<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">According to the BTU study, after an initial degradation of the modules during the first year of operation (approx. 1\u20132 %), the annual power loss is usually around <strong>0.3\u20130.5 %<\/strong>. These values are predominantly based on laboratory tests and manufacturer specifications, representing a technically isolated consideration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">System degradation (overall technical system)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The BTU study also broadens the scope to include system degradation, meaning the entire technical infrastructure of the PV system. In addition to the modules, the following are considered:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Inverters (efficiency losses, lifespan)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/en\/wiring-of-pv-modules\/\" type=\"post\" id=\"9751\">Wiring of PV modules<\/a> and contact points<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>electrical losses and mismatch effects<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Typically, degradation rates of about <strong>0.5\u20130.8 % per year<\/strong> set. These values are more practical, but they are often still based on model assumptions and less on actual measured long-term data.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Yield degradation (economically decide)<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For operators and investors, the actual energy yield is ultimately crucial. Yield degradation describes the decrease in the amount of electricity actually generated by a system. In addition to technical effects, operational and site-specific influences are also incorporated here, which the BTU study also takes into account:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Soiling<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Temperature and weather influences<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Maintenance and operation<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Temporary outages<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The current study is based on up to 16 years of operational data from 1.25 million PV systems with a total capacity of 34.9 GW, as well as open data from grid operators, the Market Master Data Register, and weather services (DWD, Copernicus). It shows an average yield degradation of around <strong>0.59 % per year<\/strong> (Range: approx. 0.52\u20130.61 % per annum).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Key findings from the study using current field data<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The new BTU study \u201eFrom Shine to Decline\u201d analyzed over 1.25 million PV systems in Germany with a total capacity of around 35 GW and up to 16 years of operation \u2013 significantly more data than any previous study. The average annual performance degradation of entire systems is between 0.52 and 0.61 percent \u2013 less than the 0.8 percent often cited in the literature. This means the overall system performance is closer to module degradation values than previously assumed. This indicates a generally high system stability of modern PV systems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The non-linear degradation is particularly relevant. Stronger effects occur during the first years of operation, and then the degradation rate flattens out, so that after 10 years, systems age only 7 to 13 percent slower. This leads to systems often operating more stably in later service than assumed in traditional models.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1024\" height=\"668\" src=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Degradation-von-PV-Anlagen-1024x668.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-27405\" srcset=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Degradation-von-PV-Anlagen-1024x668.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Degradation-von-PV-Anlagen-300x196.jpg 300w, https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Degradation-von-PV-Anlagen-768x501.jpg 768w, https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Degradation-von-PV-Anlagen-18x12.jpg 18w, https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/Degradation-von-PV-Anlagen.jpg 1273w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1024px) 100vw, 1024px\" \/><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Larger commercial ground-mounted and rooftop systems show approximately one-third higher degradation rates than small private rooftop systems, presumably due to more complex systems and Potential-Induced Degradation (PID). Compared to global reviews (average of 0.8 percent), previous values overstated the decline for Germany's temperate climate. For practitioners, this means: After 20 years, performance is typically still around 90 percent \u2013 a technical end-of-life after 20 years is too pessimistic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Implications for Economic Viability &amp; Planning<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Lower real degradation leads to higher projected electricity yields over the lifespan of a PV system \u2013 with direct benefits for economic viability and investment decisions. Assuming a 0.6 percent annual decline instead of 0.8 percent, a typical system generates <strong>after 20 years<\/strong> run <strong>3\u20135 percent more electricity<\/strong>, which adds up to thousands of euros in additional annual revenue for larger projects.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The <strong>Levelized Cost of Electricity (LCOE)<\/strong> sinkt entsprechend, da die Anfangsinvestition \u00fcber mehr produzierte Kilowattstunden verteilt wird \u2013 besonders attraktiv bei steigenden Strompreisen und F\u00f6rderungen. Zus\u00e4tzlich wirkt sich die neue realistische Einsch\u00e4tzung auch auf die Wirtschaftlichkeit bei PPA- und Contracting-Modellen aus. Die niedrigere Degradationsrate <strong>erh\u00f6ht die Planungssicherheit<\/strong> and <strong>verbessern die Kalkulationsbasis<\/strong>. Insgesamt rechnen die Cottbusser Forscher, dass allein in Deutschland bis 2040 mehrere hundert Millionen Euro j\u00e4hrlich an Wartungs- und Repowering-Kosten eingespart werden k\u00f6nnten.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Einfluss von Klima &amp; Standort auf die Degradation von PV-Anlagen<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Neben dem Alter wirken sich Witterungs- und Umweltfaktoren messbar auf die PV-Performance aus. Jeder extrem hei\u00dfe Tag \u00fcber 30 \u00b0C, Frosttag unter 0 \u00b0C oder jedes Mikrogramm Feinstaub (PM10) pro Kubikmeter senkt den Jahresertrag um 0,038 bis 0,101 Prozentpunkte. Hitzebelastungen treffen \u00e4ltere Anlagen besonders hart und verst\u00e4rken sich mit der Zeit, w\u00e4hrend Frost und Luftverschmutzung j\u00fcngere Systeme st\u00e4rker beeintr\u00e4chtigen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Niederschlag zeigt im deutschen Klima tendenziell einen leicht positiven Effekt durch K\u00fchlung und Selbstreinigung der Module. Im Gegensatz dazu erzeugen Starkregenereignisse jedoch oft auch mechanische Spannungen. Betreiber sollten daher ber\u00fccksichtigen, dass Standorte im S\u00fcden Deutschlands durch mehr Hitze oder Ballungsr\u00e4ume durch h\u00f6here Verschmutzung belastet werden. Dies erfordert eine engmaschigere Wartung, w\u00e4hrend Norddeutsche Anlagen meist von milderen Bedingungen profitieren.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Auswirkungen f\u00fcr Planung &amp; Betrieb<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For&nbsp;<strong>Projektplaner<\/strong>&nbsp;sind Degradationsannahmen von 0,5 bis 0,7 Prozent pro Jahr f\u00fcr deutsche Dachanlagen realistischer als die oft konservativen 0,8 bis 1,0 Prozent \u2013 besonders bei hochwertigen Komponenten und optimierten Betrieb und guter Wartung. In Ertragsmodellen lokale Klimadaten (z. B. aus DWD) einbeziehen, um Hitze-, Frost- und Verschmutzungsrisiken standortgenau einzupreisen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Operator<\/strong>&nbsp;sollten Hitze-Management priorisieren \u2013 Schatten, Bel\u00fcftung oder hitzetolerante Module helfen, da \u00e4ltere Anlagen hier besonders empfindlich reagieren; Reinigung regelm\u00e4\u00dfig bei Industrie- oder Verkehrsn\u00e4he durchf\u00fchren, um Feinstaub-Effekte zu minimieren. Gro\u00dfe Solarparks und Dachanlagen erfordern allerdings engmaschigere Inspektionen wegen ihres ein Drittel h\u00f6heren Degradationsrisikos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Investors<\/strong>&nbsp;profitieren von h\u00f6heren erwarteten Strommengen. Dies bedeutet, dass bestehende Anlagen wertvoller sind als bisher angenommen und neue Projekte sich schneller rentieren.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">\u00dcber die Studie<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Die analysierte Studie \u201eFrom shine to decline \u2013 Degradation of over 1 million solar photovoltaic systems in Germany&#8221;&nbsp;wird 2026 in&nbsp;<em>Energy Economics<\/em>&nbsp;ver\u00f6ffentlicht. Sie untersucht s\u00e4mtliche Daten mithilfe hochdimensionaler Fixed-Effects-Panel-Regressionen \u2013 und hebt sich deutlich von fr\u00fcheren Arbeiten ab. Im Vergleich zu bisherigen Studien \u00fcbertrifft sie diese durch die enorme Stichprobengr\u00f6\u00dfe (Millionen vs. Tausende Anlagen), die lange Beobachtungszeit (16 Jahre kontinuierlich) und die Ber\u00fccksichtigung von Umweltfaktoren sowie nichtlinearer Degradation. Basierend auf offenen Datenquellen wie Marktstammdatenregister, Netztransparenz und DWD liefert sie damit h\u00f6chst robuste, praxisrelevante Ergebnisse f\u00fcr das gem\u00e4\u00dfigte deutsche Klima.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Direkter Vergleich zu bisherigen Studien <\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><\/td><td>BTU-Studie zu kompletten PV-Anlagen<\/td><td>Bisherige Annahmen basierend auf Moduldegradation<\/td><td>Unterschied<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>H\u00f6he der Degradation<\/td><td>\u00d8 0,52\u20130,61 % p.a. (\u2248 0,59 %)<\/td><td>\u00d8 ~0,8\u20131,1 % p.a. (Literaturmittel ~1,09 %)<\/td><td>~40\u201350 % geringere Degradation als bisher angenommen<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Verlauf der Degradation (linear vs. nicht-linear)<\/td><td>Degradation ist nicht linear Verlust nimmt mit Alter ab Nach 10 Jahren: 7\u201313 % geringere j\u00e4hrliche Degradation<\/td><td>Meist linearer Verlauf (konstanter j\u00e4hrlicher Verlust)<\/td><td>Fr\u00fchphase st\u00e4rker betroffen, danach Stabilisierung &#8211; Lineare Modelle sind:<br>kurzfristig zu optimistisch<br>langfristig zu pessimistisch<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ergebniss nach 20 Jahren<\/td><td>88,9 %<\/td><td>81,79 % (bei 1%\/Jahr)<br>Hersteller garantieren: nach 30 Jahren sogar noch \u00fcber 85 %<\/td><td>nach 30 Jahren bei 1 % = 74 %<br>Nach 30 Jahren bei 0,59 % = 83,74 %<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Einfluss der Anlagengr\u00f6\u00dfe<\/td><td>Gro\u00dfe Anlagen (&gt;30 kWp): ~1\/3 h\u00f6here Degradation<\/td><td>Fokus fast ausschlie\u00dflich auf: kleine Anlagen (&lt;30 kWp) kaum Differenzierung nach Gr\u00f6\u00dfe<\/td><td>Skaleneffekte wirken negativ auf Degradation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Einfluss Temperatur<\/td><td>Hitze &amp; K\u00e4lte verursachen messbare Zusatzverluste<br>\u22120,038 % bis \u22120,101 % pro Extremtag<\/td><td>Umweltfaktoren oft: vereinfacht oder gar nicht systematisch integriert<\/td><td>Quantifizierter, signifikanter Einfluss, Standortentscheidung wird entscheidender<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Einfluss Luftverschmutzung<\/td><td>Klar negativer Effekt (PM10)<\/td><td>Oft: vernachl\u00e4ssigt oder nur qualitativ betrachtet<\/td><td>Quantifizierter, signifikanter Einfluss, Standortentscheidung wird entscheidender<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Einfluss Niederschlag<\/td><td>Kein klarer Effekt: K\u00fchlung &amp; Reinigung Vs. Streuung &amp; Feuchtigkeit<\/td><td>H\u00e4ufig pauschal positiv bewertet (Reinigungseffekt)<\/td><td>Realit\u00e4t deutlich komplexer<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wechselwirkungen<\/td><td>Effekte wechseln mit zunehmenden Alter:<br>Hitze \u2192 st\u00e4rker bei alten Anlagen<br>K\u00e4lte &amp; Pollution \u2192 st\u00e4rker bei neuen Anlagen<\/td><td>Meist keine dynamischen Wechselwirkungen ber\u00fccksichtigt<\/td><td>Degradation ist ein dynamischer Prozess<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Datenbasis<\/td><td>1 Mio. Anlagen, ~35 GW<br>bis zu 16 Jahre alte Betriebsdaten<\/td><td>oft: wenige Anlagen (7\u20132.000) und kurze Zeitr\u00e4ume (2\u20137 Jahre)<\/td><td>Robustere Daten: Repr\u00e4sentativer &amp; n\u00e4her am realen Betrieb<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wirtschaftliche Bewertung<\/td><td>Degradation deutlich g\u00fcnstiger:<br>\u22124,8 % LCOE gegen\u00fcber alten Annahmen<br>Gesamtwirtschaftlich:<br>~638 Mio. \u20ac Einsparung\/Jahr m\u00f6glich<\/td><td>H\u00f6here Kosten f\u00fcr Ersatz und Repopwering eingeplant<\/td><td>H\u00f6herer Ertrag auch nach langen Laufzeiten, selbst bei Ersatz von Hadware-Komponenten<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nichtlineare Degradation jetzt Standard<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Im Vergleich zu bisherigen Studien \u00fcbertrifft sie diese durch die enorme Stichprobengr\u00f6\u00dfe (Millionen vs. Tausende Anlagen), die lange Beobachtungszeit (16 Jahre kontinuierlich) und die Ber\u00fccksichtigung von Umweltfaktoren sowie nichtlinearer Degradation. Basierend auf offenen Datenquellen wie Marktstammdatenregister, Netztransparenz und DWD liefert sie damit h\u00f6chst robuste, praxisrelevante Ergebnisse f\u00fcr das gem\u00e4\u00dfigte deutsche Klima. Ein \u00e4hnliches Ergebnis lieferte eine Studie der Fachhochschule S\u00fcdschweiz SUPSI aus 2026. Auch hier lagen die PV-Anlagen nach einer Nutzungsdauer von 25 bis 30 Jahren immer noch bei 80 % der urspr\u00fcnglichen Nennleistung. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:100px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<div class=\"wp-block-buttons is-layout-flex wp-block-buttons-is-layout-flex\">\n<div class=\"wp-block-button\"><a class=\"wp-block-button__link wp-element-button\" href=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/en\/category\/photovoltaic-topics-in-germany-interesting-facts-for-energy-projects\/\">Back to overview<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A recent long-term study by the BTU Cottbus shows that the actual power output degradation of PV systems\u2014at around 0.6% per year\u2014is significantly lower than is often assumed. For operators and investors, this means higher electricity yields over the entire lifespan of the system and noticeably better profitability for their projects.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":27436,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,61,25],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-27390","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-solar-news","category-grundlagen-technik","category-photovoltaik"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.6 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Degradation von PV-Anlagen | CUBE CONCEPTS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Neue Studie zur Degradation von PV-Anlagen: Sie ist real deutlich geringer als bisher angenommen und macht sie noch wirtschaftlicher.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, 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