{"id":24716,"date":"2025-10-08T16:49:33","date_gmt":"2025-10-08T14:49:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/?p=24716"},"modified":"2026-06-11T16:50:16","modified_gmt":"2026-06-11T14:50:16","slug":"electricity-price-forecasts-in-comparison","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/en\/strompreisprognosen-im-vergleich\/","title":{"rendered":"Comparison of electricity price forecasts"},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Fundamental to the current <strong>Electricity price forecasts<\/strong> The study is BloombergNEF's \u201eNew Energy Outlook 2025\u201c from April 2025. It is considered one of the most comprehensive models in expert circles. Based on this, new publications emerged throughout 2025, which also incorporate international commodity and market developments. An update of the BloombergNEF study with additional sources, published by \u201eFocus\u201c in early October 2025, considers the latest price data, shifts in assumptions, and recent political measures. All of them consider a period up to at least 2035 and make forecasts about <strong>Pure stock market electricity price<\/strong> regardless of <strong>Electricity taxes<\/strong>, <strong>Network charges<\/strong> or <strong>other allowances<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Following all electricity price forecasts, Germany is facing a <strong>Phase of sharply fluctuating wholesale prices<\/strong> \u2013 initially, relief is expected by 2035, and subsequently, they expect a <strong>renewed increase<\/strong>. If regulation sets intelligent frameworks, further promotes the expansion of renewables, and adapts market design, the <strong>Price volatility<\/strong> at European level gradually after 2035 <strong>weaken<\/strong>. This also includes the increasing use of large-scale battery storage and flexibility solutions to increase grid stability.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Short-term: High prices due to gas and geopolitical risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For 2025, most electricity price forecasts expect an average wholesale price of around <strong>80-85 euros per megawatt-hour<\/strong> \u2013 slightly above last year's value. The main reasons continue to be high gas prices and a volatile geopolitical situation. This means that the <a href=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/en\/the-german-electricity-market-players-roles-and-processes\/\">German electricity market<\/a> short-term, closely linked to fossil fuels, while at the same time, the expansion of renewable energies is gaining momentum. Diverse short-term forecasts therefore expect relatively stable or even slightly falling prices for 2026.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>What<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Expected wholesale price<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BMWK<\/td><td>2026: \u20ac80\/MWh<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ECB \/ Eurosystem<\/td><td>2026: \u20ac73.6\/MWh<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kiel Institute for the World Economy Forecast<\/td><td>2026: \u20ac88\/MWh<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>European Commission<\/td><td>2026: \u20ac81\/MWh<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Electricity price forecasts expect volatile prices until 2030<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the period up to 2030, forecasts for electricity prices are relatively far apart. This is attributed to uncertain assumptions about the pace of renewable energy expansion, advances in storage technologies, and the actual electricity demand of large industrial consumers such as data centers or the hydrogen economy. While all studies confirm that additional wind and solar capacities generally have a price-dampening effect, industry analysts warn of the so-called <strong>\u201eCannibalization Effect\u201c<\/strong>. Here, wholesale electricity prices at times fall significantly during high renewable energy phases, which benefits consumers in the short term but could make new investments in renewable facilities more difficult in the medium term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Furthermore, the further development of gas prices and international emissions trading remain crucial for the overall economic development of electricity prices. The uncertainties lead to scenario ranges up to 2030 varying between approximately <strong>50 and 120 \u20ac\/MWH<\/strong> lies. Prognos even expects electricity price peaks during this phase of <strong>up to \u20ac250\/MWh<\/strong>. &nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Medium-term to 2035: Renewables drive down prices \u2013 but with risks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, many electricity price forecasts from leading market research institutes give cause for cautious optimism between 2030 and 2035. In the various scenarios, a decrease in wholesale electricity prices is expected thanks to the massive expansion of renewable energies. The most optimistic studies even expect wholesale electricity prices of less than <strong>\u20ac50\/MWh<\/strong>. You assume that wind and solar power will increasingly displace more expensive fossil fuels in generation. However, should the expansion of renewables lag behind, gas prices rise, and the <a href=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/en\/energy-law\/co%e2%82%82-pricing\/\">CO\u2082 pricing<\/a> attract, experts calculate average electricity prices of up to <strong>135 EUR\/MWh<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The future electricity price therefore depends not only on the development of renewables, but also significantly on how quickly storage technologies and grid capacities catch up, and how regulatory frameworks guide market integration. In addition, there is price volatility and rising electricity demand, for example due to <a href=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/en\/sector-coupling-for-integrated-energy-concepts\/\">Sector coupling<\/a>, Digitization and new large consumers, such as data centers, could cause a trend reversal again from 2035 onwards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The mid-term scenarios show that while the energy market transformation can lead to lower wholesale prices, this is only the case if accompanying measures for grid expansion, flexibility, and political steering are consistently implemented. Otherwise, following a relief phase, there is a risk of a phase of rising prices and increased volatility.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Overview of long-term electricity price forecasts<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Study \/ Source<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Forecast period<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Expected wholesale price<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Scenarios \/ Assumptions<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BloombergNEF (Focus October 2025)<\/td><td>2035 \/ 2050<\/td><td>2035: \u20ac47\/MWh<br>2050: \u20ac92\/MWh<\/td><td>High renewable energy expansion, later rising demand &amp; CO\u2082 costs<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Friedrich Alexander University of Erlangen-Nuremberg (January 2025)<\/td><td>by 2030<\/td><td>2030 depending on the scenario<br>50 - 120 \u20ac\/MWh<\/td><td>Higher CO\u2082 prices (\u20ac120)<br>Higher gas prices (\u20ac110)<br>More demand ($105)<br>Target path (\u20ac85)<br>High EE increase (\u20ac68)<br>Atom Revival (\u20ac50)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Copernicus Project: Ariadne Report of the BMBF (March 2025)<\/td><td>2030-2045<\/td><td><br>2030: \u20ac82\/MWh<br>2035: \u20ac70-90\/MWh per scenario<br>2045: \u00d8 75-78 \u20ac\/MWh<\/td><td>2035:<br>lt. Destination Path (\u20ac70)<br>Electrification Focus (\u20ac90)<br>Hydrogen Focus (\u20ac90)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>McKinsey \u2013 Future Path of Electricity Demand (January 2025)<\/td><td>2030\u20132035<\/td><td>2035: \u20ac65\u201375\/MWh<\/td><td>Stabilization through Storage &amp; Grid Expansion<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Agora Energy Transition (September 2025)<\/td><td>2030<\/td><td>Depending on the scenario<br>2030: \u00d8 65-101 \u20ac\/MWh<\/td><td>Ambitious or less ambitious expansion of renewable energy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Aurora Energy Research \/ WWF \u2013 Net-Zero Scenario (January 2024)<\/td><td>by 2035<\/td><td>n. a. (rising volatility expected)<\/td><td>Electricity demand +70 %, high demand for flexibility<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy Brainpool \u2013 EU Energy Outlook 2025 (April 2024)<\/td><td>by 2060<\/td><td>2035: \u20ac73\/MWh<br>(Bandwidth \u20ac61\u2013\u20ac107\/MWh)<\/td><td>Uncertainties due to geopolitics and fuel prices<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EWI (September 2025)<\/td><td>2030-2035<\/td><td>2030:<br>High: 135 \u20ac\/MWh<br>Low: \u00a552\/MWh<\/td><td>High: Significant increase in demand without Russian energy imports and with a slowdown in the expansion of renewable energies<br>Low: Adherence to target path<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Forecast on behalf of the Federation of Bavarian Industry (October 2024)<\/td><td>by 2045<\/td><td>Until 2030, extremely volatile (up to \u20ac250\/MWh possible)<br>2030: \u00d8 54 \u2013 120 \u20ac\/MWh<br>2045: \u00d8 51 \u2013 104 \u20ac\/MWh&nbsp;<\/td><td>Upper, middle, and lower price paths depending on natural gas prices<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Long-term: Return of rising prices after 2035?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Starting in 2035, long-term electricity price forecasts expect a trend reversal again: While the strong expansion of renewable energies and the massive decline in gas costs previously led to historically low wholesale prices, electricity prices are expected to rise slightly again in the years after 2035. For example, the latest study by BloombergNEF predicts an increase to over <strong>90 \u20ac\/MWh by 2050<\/strong>. This corresponds to an annual increase of approximately 3\u202f% starting in the mid-2030s. Other institutions estimate that the exchange-traded electricity price will be between <strong>75 and 104 \u20ac\/MWh<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The more stable and slowly rising prices are justified by the fact that with increasing integration of renewable energies, storage, flexibility, and grid expansion will increasingly need to be financed in the future. These will be incorporated into price formation, as will the contribution of flexible gas power plants to additional security of supply. At the same time, the volatility of renewable energies remains an issue. <strong>Flexible Consumers<\/strong> although they benefit from low spot prices, the system value of generation fluctuates much more significantly than in the fossil-dominated era.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Conclusion: Between price pressure and investment incentives<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Current electricity price forecasts illustrate this: the market is facing a price rally between falling and rising prices. While BloombergNEF expects wholesale prices to drop sharply in the short term, other models foresee a higher price level \u2013 driven by growing demand, grid bottlenecks, and geopolitical uncertainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the energy industry, it remains crucial how well politics and market mechanisms react to this dynamic. <strong>Flexible market design<\/strong>, sufficient investment incentives for <a href=\"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/en\/products\/large-battery-storage\/\">Large-scale battery storage<\/a> and grids, as well as a clear regulatory framework, will be decisive factors in whether the European electricity market remains affordable, stable, and climate-neutral in the coming decades.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The electricity market will remain extremely volatile until 2030, with price ranges between 50 and \u20ac250\/MWh. Companies are best protected against this uncertainty through self-supply and battery storage, enabling them to profit from favorable generation periods and avoid expensive peaks.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":24720,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,60],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24716","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-solar-news","category-regulatorik-esg"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.8 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Strompreisprognosen im Vergleich | CUBE CONCEPTS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Aktuelle Strompreisprognosen zeichnen volatile B\u00f6rsenpreise bis 2030. 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