{"id":24670,"date":"2025-09-18T09:39:38","date_gmt":"2025-09-18T07:39:38","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/?p=24670"},"modified":"2026-04-28T10:37:53","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T08:37:53","slug":"energeticka-transformace-ve-stresovem-testu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cubeconcepts.de\/cz\/energiewende-im-stresstest\/","title":{"rendered":"Energiewende im Stresstest \u2013 Monitoring-Bericht zeigt neue Kosten & Kurswechsel"},"content":{"rendered":"

S p\u0159edstaven\u00edm aktu\u00e1ln\u00edho Monitorovac\u00ed zpr\u00e1va <\/strong>Nov\u00e1 debata o tempu, n\u00e1kladech a sm\u011bru n\u011bmeck\u00e9 energetick\u00e9 politiky vyvolala ministryn\u011b hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed Katharina Reiche. Studie vypracovan\u00e1 Energetick\u00fdm ekonomick\u00fdm institutem (EWI) a poradenskou firmou BET ukazuje, \u017ee v\u00fdzvy by mohly b\u00fdt v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed, ne\u017e se dosud p\u0159edpokl\u00e1dalo. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch Energetick\u00e1 transformace<\/strong> tedy stoj\u00ed p\u0159ed Z\u00e1t\u011b\u017eov\u00fd test<\/strong>. P\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm p\u0159i budouc\u00ed spot\u0159ebu elektrick\u00e9 energie<\/strong> a n\u00e1klady na nezbytn\u00e9 pos\u00edlen\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b<\/strong> Na rozd\u00edl od jin\u00fdch studi\u00ed se progn\u00f3zy zna\u010dn\u011b li\u0161\u00ed, p\u0159i\u010dem\u017e sou\u010dasn\u011b maj\u00ed b\u00fdt omezeny st\u00e1tn\u00ed dotace na obnoviteln\u00e9 zdroje energie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

N\u011bmeck\u00e1 spolkov\u00e1 vl\u00e1da vsadila na zm\u011bnu kurzu: m\u00e9n\u011b klasick\u00e9 financov\u00e1n\u00ed<\/strong>, m\u00edsto toho v\u00edce tr\u017en\u00edch mechanism\u016f a jistotu investic nad Diferen\u010dn\u00ed smlouvy<\/strong>. Sou\u010dasn\u011b by m\u011bly b\u00fdt postaveny nov\u00e9 plynov\u00e9 elektr\u00e1rny jako p\u0159echodov\u00e1 technologie. T\u00edm se energetick\u00e1 transformace ocit\u00e1 na rozcest\u00ed., <\/strong>tak Katharina Reiche.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Zpr\u00e1va o monitorov\u00e1n\u00ed BMWK od EWI a BET<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Nov\u00e1 monitorovac\u00ed zpr\u00e1va Institutu pro energetick\u00e9 hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed (EWI) a poradensk\u00e9 spole\u010dnosti BET poskytuje kl\u00ed\u010dov\u00e9 ukazatele pro energetickou transformaci. Podle n\u00ed se n\u011bmeck\u00e1 spot\u0159eba elekt\u0159iny do roku 2030 zv\u00fd\u0161\u00ed na 600 a\u017e 700 terawatthodin (TWh)<\/strong> odhad - tedy v\u00fdrazn\u011b ni\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e v jin\u00fdch studi\u00edch. Spolkov\u00e1 ministryn\u011b hospod\u00e1\u0159stv\u00ed Katharina Reicheov\u00e1 dokonce po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 s pot\u0159ebou \u201ev n\u00edzk\u00fdch jednotk\u00e1ch stovek tis\u00edc\u201c. Toto hodnocen\u00ed je od\u016fvodn\u011bno stagnuj\u00edc\u00edm prodejem elektromobil\u016f a tepeln\u00fdch \u010derpadel a pomalou elektrifikac\u00ed pr\u016fmyslu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Druh\u00fd d\u016fraz je kladen na N\u00e1klady na roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b do roku 2045<\/strong>. EWI a BET kalkuluj\u00ed s 731 mld. \u20ac<\/strong>. Z toho 430 miliard eur je ur\u010deno na rozvoj p\u0159enosov\u00fdch s\u00edt\u00ed a 301 miliard eur na distribu\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edt\u011b. Odhady tak \u010din\u00ed p\u0159ibli\u017en\u011b 176 miliard \u20ac nad dosavadn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady<\/strong> Spolkov\u00e9 agentu\u0159e pro s\u00edt\u011b, kter\u00e1 p\u016fvodn\u011b po\u010d\u00edtala s celkov\u00fdmi 555 miliardami eur. Z\u00e1sadn\u00ed vliv na to m\u00e1 p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm v\u011bt\u0161\u00ed decentralizace v\u00fdroby elekt\u0159iny z obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f. V\u011btrn\u00e9 a sol\u00e1rn\u00ed elektr\u00e1rny st\u00e1le \u010dast\u011bji vznikaj\u00ed v regionech, kter\u00e9 dosud nebyly dimenzov\u00e1ny na velk\u00e9 mno\u017estv\u00ed elekt\u0159iny. Aby tyto v\u00fdrobn\u00ed kapacity byly integrov\u00e1ny do celkov\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, vid\u00ed auto\u0159i jak v p\u0159enosov\u00e9, tak v distribu\u010dn\u00ed s\u00edti podstatn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed pot\u0159ebu investic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Alternativn\u00ed studium v porovn\u00e1n\u00ed<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Hodnocen\u00ed EWI a BET nejsou jedine\u010dn\u00e1, ale zapadaj\u00ed do \u0159ady anal\u00fdz zve\u0159ejn\u011bn\u00fdch v posledn\u00edch dnech. Jasn\u011b z nich vypl\u00fdv\u00e1, \u017ee progn\u00f3zy budouc\u00ed spot\u0159eby elekt\u0159iny v N\u011bmecku se zna\u010dn\u011b li\u0161\u00ed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Na str\u00e1nk\u00e1ch Feder\u00e1ln\u00ed s\u00ed\u0165ov\u00e1 agentura<\/strong> po\u010d\u00edt\u00e1 ve sv\u00e9 studii \u201eEnergetick\u00e1 bezpe\u010dnost elekt\u0159iny<\/a>\u201cs pot\u0159ebou 725 terawatthodin do roku 2030<\/strong>. T\u00edm p\u00e1dem je v\u00fdrazn\u011b nad p\u0159edpoklady monitorovac\u00ed zpr\u00e1vy. Je\u0161t\u011b d\u00e1le jdou v\u00fdpo\u010dty Enervis<\/strong>, kter\u00e9 ve spolupr\u00e1ci se spole\u010dnostmi Greenpeace a Green Planet Energy prozkoumalo r\u016fzn\u00e9 sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159e. I ve sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i pomalej\u0161\u00edho roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f energie Enervis p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 spot\u0159ebu 758 TWh<\/strong>, zat\u00edmco v referen\u010dn\u00edm sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i hodnoty p\u0159es 800 TWh<\/strong> o\u010dek\u00e1v\u00e1 se. Agora: Energetick\u00e1 transformace<\/strong> pohybuje se s odhadem 701 TWh<\/strong> ve st\u0159edu pole. Zd\u016fraz\u0148uje, \u017ee ambici\u00f3zn\u00ed klimatick\u00e1 politika m\u016f\u017ee b\u00fdt dosa\u017eena pouze dynamick\u00fdm roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00edm v\u011btrn\u00e9 a sol\u00e1rn\u00ed energie. Oba Studie varuj\u00ed p\u0159ed riziky zpomalen\u00ed<\/a> roz\u0161\u00ed\u0159en\u00ed EE. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Aby N\u011bmecko dos\u00e1hlo klimatick\u00e9 neutrality v souladu s Pa\u0159\u00ed\u017eskou dohodou, bylo p\u016fvodn\u011b upraveno EEG. R\u016fzn\u00e9 studie p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00ed hodnoty pro dodr\u017een\u00ed c\u00edlov\u00e9 trajektorie:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Kdy\u017e porovn\u00e1me sou\u010dasn\u00e9 studie o energetick\u00e9 transformaci z z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed 2025, zna\u010dn\u011b se li\u0161\u00ed a odchyluj\u00ed se ji\u017e pro v\u00fdpo\u010detn\u00ed rok 2030. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Spole\u010dn\u00e9 znaky a rozd\u00edly studi\u00ed o energetick\u00e9 transformaci<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Navzdory \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b zna\u010dn\u00fdm rozd\u00edl\u016fm v progn\u00f3z\u00e1ch pro rok 2030 panuje mezi anal\u00fdzami EWI\/BET, Spolkov\u00e9 s\u00ed\u0165ov\u00e9 agentury, Enervis a Agora Energiewende jasn\u00fd konsensus. Roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed EE nesm\u00ed b\u00fdt brzd\u011bno<\/strong>, k dosa\u017een\u00ed klimatick\u00fdch c\u00edl\u016f a zaji\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed dod\u00e1vek energie. Shoda panuje i v tom, \u017ee elektrifikace pr\u016fmyslu, dopravy a budov dlouhodob\u011b povede ke zv\u00fd\u0161en\u00e9 popt\u00e1vce po elekt\u0159in\u011b.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rozd\u00edly se projevuj\u00ed p\u0159edev\u0161\u00edm ve v\u00fd\u0161i progn\u00f3z spot\u0159eby. Zat\u00edmco EWI a BET s 600 a\u017e 700 TWh kalkuluj\u00ed pom\u011brn\u011b konzervativn\u011b, Enervis a \u010d\u00e1ste\u010dn\u011b i Spolkov\u00e1 s\u00ed\u0165ov\u00e1 agentura po\u010d\u00edtaj\u00ed s v\u00fdrazn\u011b vy\u0161\u0161\u00edmi hodnotami a\u017e nad 800 TWh. Stejn\u011b tak se li\u0161\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady ohledn\u011b rychlosti elektrifikace a efektivity zisk\u016f v pr\u016fmyslu a dom\u00e1cnostech.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Politick\u00e1 doporu\u010den\u00ed se tak odvozuj\u00ed r\u016fzn\u011b. BNetzA, Enervis a Agora proto nal\u00e9haj\u00ed na zrychlen\u00e9 roz\u0161i\u0159ov\u00e1n\u00ed obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f energie s \u00falo\u017en\u00fdmi syst\u00e9my, aby se udr\u017eela bezpe\u010dnost dod\u00e1vek. BMWK argumentuje na z\u00e1klad\u011b zpr\u00e1vy EWI\/BET pro v\u00edce plynu a dov\u00e1\u017een\u00e9 elekt\u0159iny<\/strong> a P\u0159izp\u016fsoben\u00ed podp\u016frn\u00fdch n\u00e1stroj\u016f<\/strong>. Tyto ji\u017e nejsou aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed pro rozvoj obnoviteln\u00e9 energie. M\u00edsto toho by m\u011bly b\u00fdt dotace postupn\u011b omezov\u00e1ny a v\u00edce slad\u011bny s evropsk\u00fdm r\u00e1mcem. St\u011b\u017eejn\u00ed je zde zaveden\u00ed Rozd\u00edlov\u00e9 smlouvy<\/a> (Futures se smlouvou o vyrovn\u00e1n\u00ed rozd\u00edl\u016f), kter\u00e9 budou v budoucnu hr\u00e1t kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Rozd\u00edlov\u00e9 smlouvy (Contracts for Difference, CfD) jako preferovan\u00fd n\u00e1stroj<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Aby byla zaji\u0161t\u011bna investi\u010dn\u00ed jistota pro v\u00fdrobce, omezeny n\u00e1klady pro spot\u0159ebitele a slad\u011bna podpora pro obnoviteln\u00e9 zdroje energie s evropsk\u00fdmi sm\u011brnicemi, chce Reiche vsadit na kontrakty na rozd\u00edl. Tyto maj\u00ed v budoucnu nahradit klouzavou tr\u017en\u00ed pr\u00e9mii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Z\u00e1kladn\u00edm principem CfD je, \u017ee v\u00fdrobce energie z obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f nebo jin\u00fd v\u00fdrobce energie obdr\u017e\u00ed za ka\u017edou vyrobenou kilowatthodinu nebo megawatthodinu pevnou cenu. Tato referen\u010dn\u00ed cena (strike price) se p\u0159i pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed za\u0159\u00edzen\u00ed na v\u00fdrobu energie z obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f stanovuje dlouhodob\u011b, obvykle v r\u00e1mci v\u00fdb\u011brov\u00e9ho \u0159\u00edzen\u00ed, a je zpravidla vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed tr\u017en\u00ed cena. B\u011bhem provozu obdr\u017e\u00ed provozovatel finan\u010dn\u00ed kompenzaci, jakmile tr\u017en\u00ed cena klesne pod strike price. V opa\u010dn\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b mus\u00ed provozovatel rozd\u00edl doplatit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Rozd\u00edlov\u00e9<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Rozd\u00edlov\u00e9 syst\u00e9my se v sou\u010dasnosti pou\u017e\u00edvaj\u00ed nap\u0159\u00edklad ve Velk\u00e9 Brit\u00e1nii, Francii nebo \u0160pan\u011blsku a obvykle maj\u00ed dobu trv\u00e1n\u00ed od dvan\u00e1cti do 25 let. Varianty tohoto modelu existuj\u00ed tak\u00e9 v D\u00e1nsku a \u0158ecku, kde vedly k v\u00fdrazn\u00e9mu n\u00e1r\u016fstu rozvoje obnoviteln\u00fdch zdroj\u016f. Kriticky se tam diskutuje o spr\u00e1vn\u00e9m stanoven\u00ed referen\u010dn\u00edch cen a o riziku nadm\u011brn\u00e9 podpory nebo nedostate\u010dn\u00fdch pob\u00eddek pro inovace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Co bude d\u00e1l?<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Monitorovac\u00ed zpr\u00e1va EWI a BET nen\u00ed kone\u010dn\u00fdm bodem, ale za\u010d\u00e1tkem dal\u0161\u00edch politick\u00fdch diskus\u00ed. V n\u00e1sleduj\u00edc\u00edch m\u011bs\u00edc\u00edch budou v\u00fdsledky projedn\u00e1ny v p\u0159\u00edslu\u0161n\u00fdch odborn\u00fdch v\u00fdborech Spolkov\u00e9ho sn\u011bmu a v Rad\u011b federace. Sou\u010dasn\u011b Spolkov\u00e1 s\u00ed\u0165ov\u00e1 agentura kriticky prov\u011b\u0159uje \u010d\u00edsla a porovn\u00e1v\u00e1 je s vlastn\u00edmi sc\u00e9n\u00e1\u0159i. Jako st\u00e1le v\u00edce nez\u00e1visl\u00fd regula\u010dn\u00ed org\u00e1n hraje kl\u00ed\u010dovou roli, kter\u00e1 byla potvrzena rozsudkem Soudn\u00edho dvora EU z roku 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bundesnetzagentura (BNetzA) schvaluje pl\u00e1ny rozvoje s\u00edt\u00ed provozovatel\u016f p\u0159enosov\u00fdch soustav a stanov\u00ed tak, kter\u00e9 investice budou v nadch\u00e1zej\u00edc\u00edch letech skute\u010dn\u011b realizov\u00e1ny. D\u016fle\u017eitou roli bude hr\u00e1t tak\u00e9 p\u0159i navrhov\u00e1n\u00ed nov\u00fdch podp\u016frn\u00fdch n\u00e1stroj\u016f, jako jsou rozd\u00edlov\u00e9 smlouvy, aby zajistila jejich slu\u010ditelnost se st\u00e1vaj\u00edc\u00edm tr\u017en\u00edm a regula\u010dn\u00edm r\u00e1mcem.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 tak\u00e9 otev\u0159en\u00e9, jak se bude vyv\u00edjet skute\u010dn\u00e1 popt\u00e1vka po elekt\u0159in\u011b. Pokud by elektrifikace v oblastech dopravy, vyt\u00e1p\u011bn\u00ed a pr\u016fmyslu postupovala rychleji, ne\u017e p\u0159edpokl\u00e1daj\u00ed konzervativn\u00ed p\u0159edpoklady EWI a BET, mohla by spot\u0159eba v\u00fdrazn\u011b p\u0159ekro\u010dit \u201en\u00edzk\u00e9 600 hodnot\u201c. V takov\u00e9m p\u0159\u00edpad\u011b by bylo nutn\u00e9 kr\u00e1tkodob\u011b upravit c\u00edle rozvoje, pl\u00e1nov\u00e1n\u00ed s\u00edt\u00ed a mechanismy podpory, aby se p\u0159ede\u0161lo v\u00fdpadk\u016fm dod\u00e1vek a rostouc\u00ed z\u00e1vislosti na dovozu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Jist\u00e9 je, \u017ee energetick\u00e1 transformace z\u016fst\u00e1v\u00e1 dynamick\u00fdm procesem, ve kter\u00e9m je t\u0159eba neust\u00e1le upravovat politick\u00e9 r\u00e1mcov\u00e9 podm\u00ednky. Zpr\u00e1va o monitoringu pro to poskytuje d\u016fle\u017eit\u00e1 data a impulsy. Jak \u00fasp\u011b\u0161n\u011b se tyto podn\u011bty prom\u00edtnou do konkr\u00e9tn\u00edch opat\u0159en\u00ed, v\u0161ak nez\u00e1vis\u00ed pouze na politick\u00e9 v\u016fli spolkov\u00e9 vl\u00e1dy, ale tak\u00e9 na hodnocen\u00ed Spolkov\u00e9 s\u00ed\u0165ov\u00e9 agentury a rychlosti parlamentn\u00edho legislativn\u00edho procesu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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Zp\u011bt na p\u0159ehled<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Nov\u00e1 zpr\u00e1va p\u0159edpov\u00edd\u00e1 n\u00e1klady na s\u00edt\u011b ve v\u00fd\u0161i 731 miliard eur do roku 2045 \u2013 v\u00fdrazn\u011b v\u00edce, ne\u017e bylo dosud kalkulov\u00e1no. Navzdory konzervativn\u011bj\u0161\u00edm odhad\u016fm popt\u00e1vky po elekt\u0159in\u011b ve v\u00fd\u0161i 600\u2013700 TWh si decentralizovan\u00e1 energetick\u00e1 transformace vynucuje masivn\u00ed investice do p\u0159enosov\u00fdch a distribu\u010dn\u00edch s\u00edt\u00ed.<\/p>","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":24673,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[7],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-24670","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-solar-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nEnergiewende im Stresstest | CUBE CONCEPTS<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Der Monitoring-Bericht des BMWK unterzieht die Energiewende einem Stresstest, rechnet mit h\u00f6heren Kosten und setzt auf CfDs.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, 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